Posted on 17 May 2012 at 14:11 PM by
Ruck Driver
Much like last year, when our preview of the minor betting markets for the Heineken Cup Final was dominated by a special offer, so it is the case once again this year. Here at Betting.com we like to be neutral, but when a bookie comes up with a refund offer that significantly affects the percentages, then we have to become a little bit one sided. Powers have decreed that if Brian O'Driscoll scores at any time in the game, they will refund all tryscorer bets. O'Driscoll is best priced at 3/1 to score a try at any time (Ladbrokes) while Boylesports are betting as short as 2/1 about a try for the midfield maestro, so it's fair to say that this creates at least a 25% edge for all bets struck with the emerald-coloured Irish betting firm. Of course, now, we have to ask - which are the players most likely to cross the whitewash in a game featuring two very contrasting styles? As we discussed earlier in the week here on betting.com, Ulster will be keen to play an abrasive brand of rugby
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Posted on 17 May 2012 at 13:40 PM by
Match of the Day
It may not be the final that everyone expected, but the meeting of Chelsea and Bayern Munich next Saturday is no less intriguing for that, particularly since it will mark the first time since 1984 that a club will play the Champions League/European Cup final in their home ground - and as Dundee United fans will tell you, if there was any justice, AS Roma would have had no place in that final against Liverpool either. The pre match betting lines make Bayern rough 0.6 goal favourites. A handful of bookmakers bet 5/6 Bayern to win the match inside 90 minutes, while Bwin's odds of 5/11 are the best available for those looking for a wager on Bayern to win the trophy, whether that be in normal time, extra time or by way of the dreaded penalty shootout. In order to ascertain if this betting is correct, the first thing is to discern whether or not this is truly a home game for Bayern, and from what does home advantage originate? In practical terms, the absence of any travelling requirement
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Posted on 15 May 2012 at 17:30 PM by
Ruck Driver
Leinster's injury issues are all over the news at the moment and speculation is rife throughout the media regarding how the reigning European champions will fare, at centre in particular, on Saturday. Brian O'Driscoll is currently recovering from minor keyhole surgery on his knee, Gordon Darcy needed stitches in his head after the province's battle with Glasgow on Saturday, and Eoin O'Malley is expected to be out for six months after sustaining a cruciate ligament injury. The old pairing of O'Driscoll and Darcy will probably start, but it's far from certain that they will be at full health. However despite all this, Leinster manager Joe Schmidt is entitled to be very happy with the general health of his squad and those looking at Saturday's game from a betting point of view should be similarly satisfied that Leinster are in good shape, or as good as can be expected at this stage of a season that will have included 33 games by the time it's over. Some amount
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Posted on 15 May 2012 at 15:40 PM by
Lone Shark
As we all know, betting advice columns such as this one are supposed to work within certain parameters, golden rules, if you will. One of those is that the margin contained within first goalscorer betting is enough to make any bookmaker salivate with self-satisfaction, and so there would have to be a serious edge in order for any bet to be worthy of recommendation in such a market. That could happen later in the week, when the bookmakers have put up their betting market early but the teams have been either announced late, or word creeps out of a late change and a player who was supposed to line out at midfield or wing forward instead takes his place in the full forward line. This week however, will be utterly fascinating from both a football and a betting point of view. The championship fixtures taking place this weekend in all four provinces will be the first games to take place under the new square ball rules, where attacking players are allowed to contest high possession against the
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Posted on 12 May 2012 at 14:37 PM by
Ruck Driver
The prospect of an All-Ireland Rabodirect Pro 12 final may have died last night, but the bookmaking firms and the wider betting community still expect the country to be represented in the competition decider, as Leinster are clear favourites to progress in tonight's battle with the Glasgow Warriors at the RDS. However while Leinster have been blessed with relatively good health throughout this season, the effort involved in fighting battles on two separate fronts is taking a toll and perhaps their biggest advantage coming into this fixture was their ability to rest players for the final round of the regular season against the Dragons. Playing at home will of course be welcome, but rest is a valuable asset at this time of year. The handicap betting market this week makes Leinster favourites by either twelve or thirteen points, depending on your bookmaker of choice. The one exception to this rule is Ladbrokes, who bet 10/11 each of two off an eleven point start for Glasgow - so the Magic
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Posted on 11 May 2012 at 09:27 AM by
Match of the Day
When discussing betting in play strategy on these pages previously, we've stressed frequently the importance of knowing the aims of the teams on the field. Some of our biggest successes here on this particular section of betting.com have come from breaking down the second legs of matches and assessing the disconnect between the match prices and what constitutes a meaningful result on the field of play. In those instances, when formulating our betting strategy, at least the factors were in play in advance of the match. This Sunday afternoon however, there is the possibility that the dynamics of one game will change due to scores in another - which is a completely different situation. On those grounds, the key element to any betting strategy will be to look at the different potential situations in advance, and take a clinical view of how these would cause the in-play betting market to react. Let's look at the initial match prices and spreads, available from all the leading betting
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Posted on 11 May 2012 at 07:54 AM by
Ruck Driver
It says a lot about Munster's longstanding legacy in the Celtic League, or the Rabodirect Pro 12 as it has now become, that they remain so feared by opponents and the betting community alike. Over the course of a long season they ended the year behind the Ospreys in the league table, they are without their two main generals in the shape of Paul O'Connell and Ronan O'Gara, they have to travel to the Liberty Stadium and yet the handicap betting market is very tight, with most oddsmakers giving the Irish province less than a converted try as their head start. However if there is any opponent who won't fear Munster, it's the Ospreys. The Welsh side and Munster have been the kingpins in this competition since its inception, each having won the competition three times, each having made the play-offs since the new competition structure began and neither side ever left the top four this season for good measure. They've played each other 19 times in this competition, with
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Posted on 08 May 2012 at 21:32 PM by
Lone Shark
After blowing Cork out of the water in the National League final, Kilkenny have plunged in the antepost betting market for the Liam McCarthy Cup, to the point that 4/5 is now the best priced wager available from any of the betting firms out there. Indeed it's notable that Paddy Power seem to be ducking the Cats entirely, offering 4/6 about a Kilkenny All Ireland success, but going best price on three of the next four counties in the betting. Powers have also gone all the way out to 9/1 Cork, sending the Rebels back to the kind of price that they were earlier this year before the Jimmy Barry bandwagon gathered momentum. Which of course leads us to the crucial question - at 4/5, are Kilkenny a back or a lay? Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Sunday's performance was the way that Kilkenny won so easily despite missing several of their key players. Manager Brian Cody may put on a brave face when it comes to injuries, but it's easy to do so when your reserves step in and perform
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Posted on 03 May 2012 at 16:40 PM by
Match of the Day
As we've discussed on these pages previously, the central tenet to in-play betting is always the same - forget what the odds were at the start of the event, take in the early stages of the occasion and then after a set period of time, step back and see if what's unfolding tallies with the previously held view that caused the bookies to set their markets up as they did, however that may have been. Sometimes there will be scoring events, like goals, tries, birdies, touchdowns or whatever, and these will distort matters, but even so the biggest advantage the punter has over the firm laying the bets is the ability to set aside what was initially seen as the "accepted wisdom" and to treat the event on it's merits. This is especially true in fixtures where it's difficult to predict what approach will be brought to the event - as is very much the case in tonight's Scottish Premier League tie between Celtic and St Johnstone. As a relatively new enterprise, rest assured
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Posted on 03 May 2012 at 16:19 PM by
Ruck Driver
It's fair to say that there won't be too many rugby fans setting their alarms this Saturday morning to take in the Super XV clash between the Chiefs and the Lions in Hamilton. This is one the schedulers definitely got wrong from the point of view of giving the TV audiences an appealing fixture and the pre match handicap betting lines of seventeen, eighteen and nineteen suggest that a big win for the home side could be in the offing. If anything, the betting for this match is a little kind to the visitors. The formlines are clear enough - the Chiefs are on an eight game winning streak, while the Johannesburg-based Lions are on the back of seven defeats in a row. They now face the dreaded trip from West to East, widely acknowledged to be the harder journey to make from the point of view of adjusting, and while the Chiefs have made a lot of changes to their team, they still look to have the power to win this by a twenty-something point margin and to reward those who show faith to the
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