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Super Bowl XLVI - who will win?

Big Man with Football — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 16:12:19 GMT

And so to the big issue surrounding tomorrow night's battle in the Lucas Oil Stadium - who will win? It might seem like a trite and simple question when we've already gone into such detail regarding key issues surrounding the game, however it remains the most crucial of questions - will the it be the Patriots or the Giants who secure their fourth Super Bowl title? The Patriots remain the favourites to take the title by a very narrow margin as the betting for the game sees most bookmakers offering a three point spread, with the Giants a touch of odds on at that price. However the closer we get to kick off, the more it looks like Big Blue for the win, at least in the eyes of this column.

We've already discussed the passing game - where Eli Manning, on this season's form, is entitled to consider himself at least the equal of Tom Brady. Brady has seen and done it all in professional football and his numbers for this season are fantastic, but even he would acknowledge that the schedule was very kind and against Baltimore he looked very ordinary at times. In contrast, the Giants had probably the toughest schedule in the league but defied that to produce an incredible run of results, with Eli throwing 14 fourth quarter touchdowns in that time. Anyone watching NFL Network on a regular basis will be familiar with the cry of Deion Sanders - "I BELIEVE IN ELI!" Well Deion, you spoke the truth - now we all do.

Despite all the heroics that we've seen from Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker this year, no one player has been more important to the Patriots than defensive tackle Vince Wilfork. In what can only be described as a patchwork defense, filled with players who have been undrafted, released and cut at various stages, Wilfork is the one consistently brilliant performer who has always dominated the line of scrimmage and created a series of big plays. The Patriots' defence this year has been much maligned, but against the run they have been extremely solid.

The problem is that Wilfork can't do everything, and the Giants look as if they have too many weapons out wide for New England to be able to handle. Matthew Slater and Julian Edelman simply aren't good enough for this level of football to make the difference against good receivers and this year, Victor Cruz has become one of the best. He's biting off huge chunks of yards with nearly every receptions, while Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are mismatches against ordinary defensive backs.

In Super Bowl XVII featuring these two sides, New England allowed the tempo of the game to slow down, which left them within striking distance in the latter stages. This year they may look to move things quickly and guarantee a shootout, but that could end up giving the Giants chances to make turnovers. Certainly they Giants pass rush is capable of causing spills, and if the secondary also makes a play, then Patriots fans could be in for a long night.

Take the three point start to give yourself the cushion of a narrow defeat as well. Bwin are out on their own at 10/11 about the Giants plus three - that may not last as the money starts to flood in over the course of tomorrow, so it's well worth betting as soon as possible.

Calcutta Cup could easily stay north of the border

Ruck Driver — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 15:14:29 GMT

With only a couple of hours to go until the kick off at Murrayfield, much has been made of the issue of experience in advance of the 130th meeting between Scotland and England. Certainly the bare numbers do not lie - the Scots bring 499 caps into battle in Edinburgh, while England have less than half that at 233 in total, an average of less than 16 per man.

However the question has to be asked - what exactly have the Scots experienced in those 500 odd test matches? Largely, the answer is defeat. It's been a long time since Scotland finished at the top end of the Six Nations table and in a game like this their experience could just as easily act as a shackle or a burden as much as an advantage. England may be somewhat unprepared for the sense of theatre and occasion that is likely to await them at Murrayfield, but they have picked a team capable of expressing themselves, with a management unit that is encouraging them to do so.

The problem for England is that before you start worrying about what way you play when you have the ball in your possession, you first have to win it - and in that regard, the Scots look to have a huge advantage in this fixture. Jim Hamilton, Richie Gray, Euan Murray, captain Ross Ford and Allan Jacobsen are a fearsome front five and against a lighter and smaller set of counterparts from south of Hadrian's Wall, they should be able to dominate. Wintry conditions will also ensure plenty of kicking, plenty of loose, broken play, and plenty of set pieces. Experience might be the topic that everyone wants to talk about in advance of this fixture, but old fashioned control of the ball is still paramount in the game of rugby union and the Scots just look too strong here.

They will need that advantage in their favour because injury to Joe Ansbro has robbed them of their most elusive and potent running threat. Ansbro has yet to win over a lot of rugby followers but he has the spark to create a line break or a mismatch and the more traditional running style of Rory and Sean Lamont is not likely to create anything special against an England backline that certainly doesn't lack for size. Equally on the other side of the ball, Chris Ashton and David Strettle are proven finishers, but you have to be given something to finish, and unless Owen Farrell keeps the ball in hand a lot more than he usually would, then they could find themselves spending a lot of the game running backwards and fielding kicks from Dan Parks.

So what does all this mean from a betting point of view? Well for one, we think that Scotland will win, and the 13/10 from Bluesquare is worthy of attention. Secondly, with an absence of tryscoring flair on either side, the match total of 33.5 from Skybet, Boylesports and Bodog looks high. All three of these betting firms go 5/6 that the final score falls under this level and frankly a line around 29 or 30 would look a lot closer to the mark to us. Stay low, and take plenty of satisfaction from watching the ball being kicked from one end of the field to the other, as is likely to be the case this evening.

Topbetta's Supersized Superbowl Extravaganza!

pjmar — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 09:06:16 GMT

When the Yanks 'supersize' they certainly make sure they do it properly and this year's event will be no different to any other year when Super Bowl XLVI kicks off.

Forget all the stats about rushing and passing yards and whether The Giant's Quarterback Eli Manning is better than the Patriots Brady.

What we want to know is how many hot dogs our American cousins will shovel into their gut-busting stomachs!

In Super Bowl XLIII in 2009 the Tampa stadium's fans scoffed around 55 200 of them, buns and all!

Domino's reckon they will sell over 9 million slices of pizza which will be washed down with over 325.5 million gallons of beer. That's about 493 Olympic sized swimming pools guzzled clean of ale!

If that's not enough what about the 293,000 miles of potato chips that will be scoffed throughout the game? Or the 100 million lbs of chicken wings hoovered up in garden parties?

On average each American watching this year's Super Bowl XLVI will consume over 1200 calories as the match progresses. Imagine if it goes into overtime!

Talking of supersizing, what if you wanted your 30-second commercial to be screened in one of the many breaks? How much would that cost? Try $3.5 million US!

But don't worry as your advert should be seen by over 111 million people - well that's how many watched last year's Super Bowl.

If all this sounds a bit too much and you are already reaching for the Quick-Eze why not enjoy the game without the calories?

TopBetta has two fantastic competitions to see who the NFL's TopBetta champion is.

You can enter the free comp for a chance to share the $500 prize pool or buy-in and play for a share of $1000.

Forget the hot dogs and potato chips, sit back and watch your money push you up that leader board without the indigestion!

Brady not playing to MVP standard

Big Man with Football — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 03:22:03 GMT

It shows quite how far the New York Giants have come this season that the debate about which quarterback is the most likely MVP candidate is even taking place this week. When fantasy football drafts were taking place at the start of the year, Tom Brady was a first or second round pick in almost every league. Eli? Eighth or ninth round at best, and that's assuming he was drafted at all. After all, who would have picked him over Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Roethlisberger or Vick? And that's before allowing for the other second tier passers like Schaub, Ryan, Romo, Cutler or Fitzpatrick, or big brother Peyton, who only went undrafted due to injury concerns.

However after this year, second tier is not an accusation that we'll ever hear about Eli again. Whether or not he picks up his second Super Bowl ring, his achievement in guiding this Giants offense into the biggest annual occasion in world sport is a genuinely impressive one.

The bookies are expecting a quite even battle from the two quarterbacks this Sunday in Indianapolis, as evidenced by the betting on passing yards. Eli is pitched to throw for around 315 yards by the oddsmakers, while Brady is pitched at 320.

In 18 starts this year between the regular season and the playoffs, Brady has gone over 320 on ten occasions, falling short on eight. However the Patriots' schedule turned out to be quite easy and until last weekend they didn't actually beat a team with a winning record. Brady showed real vulnerability against Baltimore, forcing passes that simply weren't on, and he very nearly paid the price as his two interceptions were only turned into three points between them - on another day Baltimore would have punished his inaccuracy all the more and we could be looking at a Ravens-Giants Super Bowl now. So the question has to be asked - is his 10-8 record against this particular spread really down to facing mediocre defenses?

Against this Giants pass rush, and allowing for the fact that the Giants should be able to move the ball on the ground reasonably well and keep Brady off the field for good chunks of time, taking Bet365's even money about Brady passing for under 324.5 yards seems like the best way to proceed when it comes to passing yards in this game. Quite how long this price will last is another matter - Powers are 5/6 about over 307.5, and one of those two prices will have to go. Otherwise the bookmakers are essentially offering 21/1 about Brady's passing yards landing between 308 and 324 and that's simply way too big by any measure. Even though Powers are the more anomalous price however, we'd prefer to stick with the under here. Opposing the Patriots is rarely clever and opposing Brady even less so, but this is a tough challenge for him and even without the question marks over Rob Gronkowski's fitness, he'll find it very hard on Sunday night in Indy to deliver a big display against this Giants defense. It might not matter - they could win with Brady only racking up 280-300 yards, but that will still be good enough for us.

Quality to the fore in College competition

Lone Shark — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:28:23 GMT

Of all the GAA competitions in the calendar, few have so much quality and talent on display as the Sigerson and Fitzgibbon Cup contests, yet ironically, very few national competitions are so poorly promoted by the GAA marketeers. This week alone some of the best footballers and hurlers in the country will tog out in front of miniscule crowds and play championship matches of great intensity, while this weekend the start of the National Football League will get ten times the amount of newspaper coverage despite operating at a lower level. After all, how many county sides would say with confidence that they could beat UL hurlers or DCU footballers at this time of year?

From a betting point of view, the standout football bet looks to be Carlow IT to beat DIT at 7/4 on Wednesday night. DIT have been extremely strong in this competition for the past couple of seasons, but they've lost a lot of key players this time around and don't look to be at the same level at all as they were in 2010 and 2011. Carlow IT's absence from the O'Byrne Cup means that they don't have quite the same profile as some of the other colleges, but they did reach this year's Higher Education League final, while players like Ben Brosnan, Craig Rogers and Seán Gannon could hold their own in any company. They are regarded as dark horses for this competition by many - which is probably a bridge too far since DCU lie in wait in the quarter finals - but for now they represent an excellent bet.

The gulf in class between the colleges making a real go of these tournaments and those lacking the depth to compete is also fairly sharp, and a 4/5 treble from Paddy Power also looks like handy money this week. UL lost their one intercounty class player when Anthony Maher injured himself in the McGrath Cup and they'll be overpowered by UUJ at Ratoath. NUIG have home advantage for the duration of this event and will be keen to give a very good account of themselves under the guidance of John Maughan and they should get over St Mary's, who haven't looked strong this year. Meanwhile it's impossible to see UCC slipping up against a very mediocre GMIT side.

Only three years ago GMIT were the best bet in the competition when they took on UCC at home at odds against, but the standard of football in the Cork university has gone through the roof in the past couple of years while GMIT are now also rans, arguably the weakest team in this competition. Paddy Power go 13/2 about an away win here when frankly, 33/1 would be closer to the mark. Taking UUJ, UCC and NUIG to justify favouritism works out as a 4/5 treble and we'd be shocked if this one got knocked over.

Value is harder to identify in the Fitzgibbon fixtures, and while best like Limerick IT to beat UL at 2/1 look generous, it's a bit tricky to quantify in a group setting where some teams will know that a second chance awaits. Stick with the football for now, though further hurling opportunities are likely to present themselves in the coming weeks.

Six Nations looming large

Ruck Driver — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 18:54:18 GMT

For the rugby purist, World Cups and Heineken Cups are all very well, but there's nothing quite like the rich diet of the Six Nations in Spring to really whet the appetite. Rivalries have formed over decades to the point that the history surrounding each individual occasion is palpable, with on the field, the battles that take place still resonate all across the globe.

The unpredictability of the competition always adds to the allure, but this year that factor is even more prominent with England undergoing massive upheaval and every country at the beginning of their four year cycle.

Logic would dictate that the final day battle between Wales and France has the look of a title decider about it, and unless either team takes a noticeable step backwards, that probably should be the case. There was little to call between these two sides at the World Cup and Wales' young side, continuing under the guidance of Warren Gatland, should be the more likely to develop, on paper at least. Their club sides haven't really made the inroads that they would like, but their wealth is spread pretty evenly, in start contrast to Ireland and Scotland, who essentially pick the bulk of their team from two sides each. There are no obvious injury concerns and as their pack continues to mature, they have the potential to deliver consistency throughout the tournament, forever the bugbear of the Welsh.

On paper, the French have done extremely well in recruiting Phillippe Saint Andre. The former international centre has a great track record in management and has made all the right noises about maximising performance in a professional manner, rather than indulging French "flair" at the expense of solid pragmatic rugby. They too have a strong team and will be happy to have three home games, with Ireland and England among the visitors to Paris. They might not beat Wales on the last day, but if they perform up to par before then, they might have the tournament wrapped up by St Patrick's day anyway.

England are third favourites but only the most passionate England supporters will contemplate spending any money on backing the champions to retain their crown. Their management team has been gutted and the interim unit are far from convincing, they've lost a string of key players and the form of their club sides in Europe is underwhelming to say the least. It's very possible that they could realise over the course of this tournament quite how important Martin Johnson's leadership actually was to their cause. With their first round tie against Scotland looking like a real banana skin, the 12/1 from BetVictor about England only winning one game looks like incredibly good value, even if it makes for gruesome contemplation for England supporters.

Scotland and Italy remain irrelevant from the point of view of winning the competition, though the Scots will of course be looking at their first round match with England as the big prize and one that they're definitely capable of winning. They probably needed a home game against Ireland or Wales to have a realistic chance of sneaking into the top half of the table, so expect them to play well but still fall short on several occasions.

The Irish need to deliver here because with an ageing team, they are running out of chances to pick up big prizes. The World Cup was a huge missed opportunity, but if Declan Kidney can even come close to harnessing the form that the provinces are showing right now, they have to be competitive. The first round match with the Welsh is crucial. 4/9 from Ladbrokes, Hills and Powers looks extremely short, but they still deserve ever so slight favouritism. They make no appeal at 5/1 or 11/2 outright though. Brian O'Driscoll, even in the Autumn of his career, remains their most incisive threat and his absence is a massive blow.

Overall, though the 12/1 about one win for England is probably the most appealing betting option in terms of pure value, ultimately our decision is to side with the French at 7/4. Under Saint Andre's guidance they can deliver a solid professional performance throughout this tournament and even if the Grand Slam might be a bridge too far, it's easy to see them travelling to Cardiff for the final weekend with four wins already secured and with scope to lose the game, possibly even by a decent amount. In that instance, hedging would almost certainly be possible and as such the best trading position seems to be siding with the favourites here.

Usual rules left aside for second leg battle

Match of the Day — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:07:24 GMT

No doubt some of our more eagle-eyed readers have noticed the focus for today's piece - the anomaly that when a football game is deemed to be an even match between the two sides, the odds are usually along the lines of 8/5 each team and 23/10 the draw, or something like that depending on the amount of margin written in by the bookmakers offering the betting.

However in a game where one team is deemed to be exactly one goal better, usually offered at around 1/2 on the match betting market, the one goal handicap odds will normally be along the lines of 7/5 each team and 11/4 the handicap draw. In both cases, the draw/handicap draw is by far the most likely single discrete outcome in terms of margin, and yet even if the total goals expectancy is similar, the odds are very different.

To those who look at the distribution as a perfect poisson curve (don't fret non-stats people, normal service will resume very soon!) this is of course mathematically anomalous. However the explanation is simple. When a game is level, both sides have something to lose and so both will play normal football until the final whistle. However if one team is leading and thus one team is losing, the parameters change. If the home side is in front, the away team has nothing to lose, so they tend to be a touch more adventurous in trying to look for a goal, making goals and thus a move along the margin axis more likely.

Simply put, a draw game is worth something and teams will defend to hold it, a one goal deficit is usually of no value whatsoever. However that rule goes out the window for a game like tonight's Carling Cup second leg fixture, where a draw is useless to Manchester City and a one goal deficit is worth something to Liverpool.

Of course we could factor in things like team news, such as the Toures playing in Africa and the suspensions to Mario Ballotelli and Vincent Kompany, however all of those elements have been factored into the match price and irrelevant to this discussion. However all the subsidiary markets are priced as if it is a regular league game, when quite the opposite is the case - the "draw" result here is Manchester City to win by a goal.

On the winning margin market, Manchester city to win by a goal is 10/3, which is a touch bigger than what should be the case for this outcome. Yet as the game proceeds, if the match either stays level or Man City take the lead, this event will shorten in price much faster than should be the case, as the in-play betting market will be much more responsive to the circumstances of the game as they unfold. Take the 10/3 about City winning by a one goal margin, prices as such by BetVictor, Bet365 and Ladbrokes, and be ready to trade it away for a profit with seventy odd minutes gone in the game.

Lessons from Conference Final Weekend

Big Man with Football — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 13:50:19 GMT

After all the discussion about offense and defense, it turned out to be the special teams players that made the difference last Sunday. The 2012 Conference Finals won't be remembered fondly by either Kyle Williams or Billy Cundiff, as they will forever have to live with the disappointment of making crucial plays that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons. But what else did we learn? Here are five key facts that will need to be borne in mind in advance of the Super Bowl, both in terms of analysing the game, and of course putting our betting strategy together in advance of the big occasion

(1) The Giants pass rush will test New England immensely

Now that they're all healthy and working together, the New York Giants are an utterly devastating force when it comes to rushing the passer. Jason Pierre Paul, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck have all put up great numbers this year and while the New England offensive line has been one of the best in the league this year, doing a wonderful job of protecting Tom Brady, they face a huge challenge in Indianapolis against the most in-form unit in the league.

(2) New England have a running game if they need it

Ben Jarvis Green Ellis might have the kind of name that has inspired the moniker "Law Firm" but he also protects the football extremely well and found some good holes in a solid Baltimore rush defense. New England need to get the Giants to commit men to the run and if BJGE is getting five yards per carry in the early stages of the game, he'll create some great opportunities for the receiving unit down the stretch.

(3) Eli is a tough, elite quarterback now

Perhaps due to the intense scrutiny of the New York media, or perhaps due to growing up in the shadow of a famous father and an incredibly talented older brother, Eli Manning never really got the credit for his achievements on the field until he secured his Super Bowl ring against the Patriots. Even then the jury remained out on the Big Blue signal caller until this year when he took a lot of punishment from opposing pass rushers and still managed to turn what looked like a very mediocre offense into one of the most feared passing units in the league, all while managing a fiercely tough schedule. He took six sacks and twelve hits against the 49ers and still got his job done - that's worthy of respect and if the Patriots do have an advantage at quarterback in this game, it's not a big one.

(4) Gronk will be fit

Patriots fans will have had palpitations when they saw big Tight End Rob Gronkowski go down with an ankle injury. Still, Gronk was able to get back up and play a part in the rest of the game, while the extra week of rest and recuperation will be a huge advantage. Expect New England's main offensive weapon to be fully fit for this encounter, and after Vernon Davis took the Giants' defense to the cleaners, the Gronk will be hopeful of doing the same.

(5) New England secondary very vulnerable

Okay, so Sterling Moore was the unlikely hero with two huge plays at the end of the game to knock the ball out of Lee Evans' hands, and to deny the completion to Dennis Pitta on the following play. That doesn't change the fact that Joe Flacco was able to pick apart the New England secondary, largely by targetting Julian Edelman, and if he can do it, you can bet that Eli Manning will be looking at filling his boots. New York won't want Eli taking 59 passing attempts again as he did against San Francisco, but if he does, would you really fancy New England's chances of keeping him to under 350 yards?

Johnston has the potential to rock the Kildare boat

Lone Shark — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 12:36:08 GMT

The furore over Sean Johnston's potential switch to Kildare is very interesting at the moment, not least because the team in question appear to have a lot of their ducks in a row at the moment and the decision to recruit a very high profile outsider may not sit well with those footballers already working hard within the county.

Of course the O'Byrne Cup is hardly the best way of judging any team, however nobody could argue that right now Kildare are fit, working to a system and playing some very effective football. They cut through Dublin for a shortcut at the weekend and while the Dubs are clearly still working the toxins out of their system after an understandably heavy winter, it was still enlightening to see the way that Kildare overpowered their Leinster rivals in Newbridge.

With his team firing on all cylinders like that, the recruitment of Johnston, if it occurs, could upset the very delicate ecosystem in the county. On the face of it, Kildare and Johnston are a match made in heaven. The county team are just a point or two off All Ireland winning standard with a lot of physically strong, hard working footballers, while he's a two-footed scorer capable of taking frees and scoring from play in an equally accomplished manner, exactly the type of footballer the county simply doesn't have. However if you're a Kildare supporter, it must be hard not to feel the same unease you get when talking to a very attractive woman in her early thirties in a nightclub, who smiles in response to the suggestion that you share a cab home. It all seems to be going swimmingly, but a great catch like this has to be single for a reason.

Lest we forget, we have to go back to 2005 to find the last time Cavan won two championship football matches in the one year. The county is loitering in division three for the past couple of seasons with no real likelihood of promotion and yet again this year they are at the bottom of the betting for that particular league. So how likely is it that a forward good enough to be the difference maker for a team of All Ireland contenders is not good enough to make their panel? Only Cavan manager Val Andrews can answer that question truly honestly since he picks the team, but without doubt there are warning lights flashing all over this deal from a Kildare perspective.

His decision to align himself with the St Kevins club is an intriguing one since St Kevins aren't exactly the natural choice of a glory hunter, and above all, this could be a lot of fuss over nothing since this transfer is very likely to be blocked, regardless of what happens. Nonetheless it's enough to prevent us from piling into Kildare for the All Ireland, which was fast turning into the standout antepost bet available on the market. For as long as Kildare continue to advance in their development, they are getting closer and closer to the standard required to take the Same Maguire and as we saw for the past couple of seasons, they aren't that far off to begin with. When Armagh broke the door down for Ulster in 2002 it was Tyrone who went on to go through the empty doorway more often than not in the following years. Who's to say that Dublin didn't pave the way for Kildare in the same fashion?

This is a Kildare team moving well and executing a style that requires complete commitment, physical preparation and mental strength, but it doesn't require a mercurial corner forward looking to pick up a medal, certainly not if he brings with him any personal issues. Let's hope that Kildare realise this and if they do, the 12/1 generally available represents an excellent betting play.

Ravens need to do the simple things

Big Man with Football — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 12:02:34 GMT

In most big games, gridiron fans wait for timeouts and breaks to go to the kitchen and put the kettle on, or to pop some snacks in the microwave. This Sunday evening when the New England Patriots host the Baltimore Ravens, half the match will feel like an opportunity to go into the kitchen. After all, everyone wants to see Tom Brady, Ray Lewis, Rob Gronkowski, Terrell Suggs, Wes Welker and Ed Reed do their thing. When the Patriots have the ball, it will be compelling viewing. But Joe Flacco, Patrick Chung, Ed Dickson and Jerrod Mayo? Not so much.

Yet if either of the two "ugly sister" units of this team can step up and deliver a big performance in Foxboro, they will have done their more glamourous counterparts on the other side of the ball a huge service. The New England offense is devastating, but they can't keep going 80 yards down the field and run up a big tally against a turnover-happy defense. Similarly, the Baltimore defense is ferocious against any opposition, but if their offense keeps going three and out and they have to stay on the field for long spells against Brady and company, they will break down under the mental and physical strain of it all.

That in itself gives Baltimore some hope. Ray Rice hasn't been quite as effective this year as many analysts felt he would be - the acquisition of Vonte Leach was supposed to make him a strong contender for the leading rusher in the NFL - however historically, he has performed well against the Patriots, averaging over 140 yards of offense per game. When people defend the spectacularly poor New England defensive unit, they make the point that while the Pats give up lots of yards, their red zone defense is excellent and thus they are somewhat incredibly 15th in the league for points allowed, despite being 31st for yards allowed.

However while Flacco will need to get his team into the end zone at least twice, and that's allowing for the defense and special teams coming up with a score of their own, doing that and tacking on a couple of field goals could yet be enough if they can restrict turnovers and make sure that the Pats are always working with a long field.

Individually, the big concern for Baltimore is how to deal with the twin tight end threat of Gronkowski and Hernandez. Bill Belicheck showed a new hand last weekend when he brought Hernandez into the running game, and that threat causes huge problems for Baltimore defensively. If Hernandez lines up behind the line of scrimmage in a position to take a handoff, he becomes the responsibility of Ray Lewis. If however he then cuts out wide, that leaves Lewis mismatched against a good catching threat down the field. On top of that, rest assured that Belicheck and Brady will have a new set of tricks for Baltimore to worry about as well.

All that said, the head start of a touchdown on the spread and the very real prospect that Baltimore stay on the field for a substantial amount of time is enough to make is side with the Ravens for our betting recommendation this week. After a regular season dominated by offensive play and huge numbers from quarterbacks, old fashioned defensive football was the key to success in the playoffs so far. Baltimore need to manage the clock, end all their series with a kick of some sort and try to penetrate the outstanding offensive line of the Patriots, but there's nothing there that they shouldn't be capable of. Baltimore plus seven at 10/11 is the call, with a nibble on Baltimore to win at 5/2 just for good measure.

'Quins to get the win the need

Ruck Driver — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 11:26:00 GMT

If Connacht were French, predicting tonight's Heineken Cup tie at the Sportsgrounds would be a much easier affair. With no wins from five games so far, a paper thin squad and much more important domestic battles on the horizon, any sensible team would simply roll over and die tonight.

However anyone who knows anything about rugby in the West of Ireland knows that phoning it in is simply not on the cards tonight. There is a huge sense of pride in Connacht at their achievement in qualifying for the Heineken Cup and the last thing they want to do is to depart the competition without putting at least one entry in the win column. However the disappointing thing from their point of view is that realistically, their two games against Gloucester represented their best possible chances to do just that. The West Country men were definitely there for the taking, both in Galway and at Kingsholm, and Connacht's failure to get over the line in those fixtures said a lot about both their brittle mental state and their lack of killer instinct when an opportunity arose.

There will be no shortage of intensity and commitment in their challenge tonight either, but they've been unlucky in that not unlike their trip to Toulouse, they meet a team with every incentive to pile on every single score. And while this has been a very poor competition for Premiership sides so far, Harlequins have been one of the few bright spots for English rugby and they have the tools to deliver the bonus point win that they so badly need.

Connacht's haul of two bonus points from five games so far looks meagre, but only in their home game against Toulouse did they really underperform. They deserved a bonus point at the Stoop, they deserved at least one win out of their two games against Gloucester, and better sides than Connacht have gone to Toulouse and been over-ran, while the men in green could easily have led at half time but for one pass that failed to find its mark. To some purists, their performance in France, for an hour at least, was as good as they've played all year.

If every bookmaker was offering a nine point handicap here, we'd be inclined to suggest staying away entirely. However Sportingbet are dangling the carrot of a seven point betting spread in front of us, albeit with 'Quins offered at 5/6 off that mark, and there is enough in that to warrant a small wager. Connacht are running on empty right now and while they would like to prove a point to the IRFU that there is real potential out west, the simple fact is that there are too many cases like Ian Keatley - good players sitting on the bench for one province while another badly needs them. Harlequins can dominate this match at 8/9/10 and can win by more than a solitary converted try.

Time for the bookies to believe in San Fran

Big Man with Football — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:37:18 GMT

There's no question right now as to which team is the form side in the NFL. The New York Giants have essentially been in playoff mode for four consecutive weeks now and they've come up trumps on every occasion, improving as they go along. Logic dictates that if you're graph is steadily on the up and in the space of five weeks you've gone from losing to the Redskins at home to beating Green Bay at Lambeau Field, then the shrewd betting play this week would be backing the Giants to win by a blowout. Anything else would be a step down after all!

However things are rarely that simple and clearly last week a lot of the Giants success was down to miscues from Green Bay. Pressure on the quarterback may go some way to explaining the difficulty that the Packers had in getting their passing game going, but pressure doesn't explain eight dropped passes and one shocking miss from Rodgers that would have been a certain touchdown. This column's view is simple - New York didn't win last week's game, Green Bay lost it. Sure, other teams might not have been good enough to cash in on the opportunity while Big Blue certainly stepped up to the plate, but this is playoff football now, featuring theoretically the four best teams in the league. If you have a bad day, you will lose.

However, as the New Orleans Saints will testify, if you have a good day, that doesn't necessarily mean that you'll win. They threw everything they had at the 49ers, albeit Drew Brees could have done with not throwing quite so much straight at them, and the NFC West champions still found a way to win. It was a wonderful sporting occasion but it was also a testament to how far the 49ers have come over the course of this season in that they got production from every sector of the field, not least their much maligned signal caller, Alex Smith. In terms of the scale of achievement last week, San Francisco took on the red hot Saints and won, the Giants took on a lukewarm Packers unit. No comparison.

The 2.5 point handicap line suggests that the bookmakers think that New York would be the better team on a neutral venue. The Giants are moving well, Tom Coughlin has the respect of the dressing room and they have the experience of coming from the wild card round all the way to the Super Bowl, but this is an elite and consistent 49ers defense, with a balanced offense capable of stepping up when the need arises. 10/11 minus 2.5 points is a solid bet this week and quite frankly, it's bordering on disrespectful to a team that has proven long ago that there's a lot more to them than just a handy route to the playoffs through a soft division.

Munster capable of capitalising on Northampton weakness

Ruck Driver — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 13:07:26 GMT

When Munster edged out the Northampton Saints by way of a late, late drop goal from Ronan O'Gara in the first week of this competition, it looked for all the world as if this return fixture was going to be a crucial one in deciding the fate of both clubs. Instead Munster have defied some mediocre form to accumulate four further wins, while Northampton have been desperately disappointing and can only hope to secure a spot in the Amlin Challenge Cup with a win this Saturday after underperforming spectacularly since that heartbreaking week one defeat.

The news today that star winger Chris Ashton will be leaving for Saracens at the end of the season is another crucial blow to the club and while he will see out this season with the Saints, it's being reported that he will not feature in this weekend's match against the travelling Red Army.

The five point handicap currently being offered by betting firms Bet365 and Paddy Power would look reasonably accurate if both sides were going all out for this fixture, but it's hard to imagine that Northampton will be capable of putting their best foot forward without their prolific winger. Additionally, everyone in the club knows that ultimately, avenging that round one defeat is their main goal here and that doesn't quite fire the belly to the same extent. The choice of venue also plays into Munster's hands, since the increased capacity of the Milton Keynes arena is likely to offer a lot more chances for Munster fans to make the trip than it is to facilitate thousands of extra Saints followers.

Northampton's win over the Llanelli Scarlets in Wales was the only piece of good news for the Aviva Premiership in a week when the only Ireland vs England battle ended in a humiliating defeat for the Leicester Tigers. However a late breakaway try from Ben Foden put a lot of gloss on that scoreline and a narrower victory for the visitors would probably have been a fairer reflection.

Our main concern before recommending Munster is of course the lengthy injury list that the province has to overcome, but they've secured wins in every game so far playing without key players and the return of full back Felix Jones is one step back in the right direction. If this was an even game in the betting we'd be saying no bet, but with a five point head start, we just have to side with Munster here.

Midweek McKenna Cup about to throw in

Lone Shark — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 18:25:49 GMT

There's less than an hour to go before the last round of McKenna Cup group games get underway, but late team news suggests that the 9/4 from Ladbrokes about UUJ getting a win in Cavan is a very attractive bet.

Most of the news surrounding Cavan GAA in recent weeks has centred on the future prospects of Seán Johnson and the news of him electing to transfer to Kildare. His initial request has been rejected and the issue now looks set to move to the DRA, but what can't be argued is that Cavan have played some excellent football so far this January and the decision to cut him from the panel has been vindicated. However despite the fact that they are still well in the running for the best runner up spot - albeit needing to win by a big margin to have any chance of securing it - the news from the Breffni county is that the panel's depth is being fully tested tonight.

The Jordanstown students are no mugs at the best of times and they are rightfully at the higher end of the betting for the Sigerson Cup this year. They've had a steady stream of strong freshers teams and look like by far the most likely contenders of the three Ulster colleges. Odds of 9/4 about a win for UUJ would be well worth a second look at any time, but now that Cavan are treating this game like a challenge match, the door appears to be open for a strong bet, or at least as strong as the Magic Sign are likely to allow for a game like this.

Time is short, but for those who do get a chance, this looks like excellent value for a midweek evening!

Cook on low slow heat

iancatley — Mon, 16 Jan 2012 21:27:08 GMT

Only two Tests have been played in Dubai. Not much form to make England vs Pakistan a betting proposition. Betting outright, the draw is clear favourite but draws are few and far between in Test matches these days.

On form England should win, Pakistan is still in turmoil and disgrace after recent events. The selection of an extra spinner is not going to make much difference on this surface. England should stick with the formula, which has served them very well, i.e. huge, tall fast bowlers with a penchant for sticking it up the early order with a new ball. When wasn’t that a successful tactic; the Pakistan front five will have to be good to cope even on this pitch. However England still can instigate a mid-order crisis with Pietersen always seemingly able to throw away a good start in a moment of rashness. So even in a three-horse race no bet seems sound advice. Keep the outright betting for the later Tests once we have seen the shape of this Pakistan side, which has little form against quality opposition.

Instead look at 1^st innings run-scorers for the value. There are some clues in the very brief ground history. In the first Test match here, Pakistan and South Africa scored 1,299 for the loss of just 25 wickets that is an average of 52 runs per wicket. In fact almost all the runs were scored at the top of the order, there were four separate centurions and nobody lower than No 5 made more than 12; patience like a top batsman was required. The pitch will be slow, even if it takes a bit of turn later in the game and the expectation is that anyone who gets their head down can make a hatful. England has some real cameo specialists but currently have the two top concentrators in the game. Trott showed that he might run into form with a decent second innings effort in the last warm up game and he is the only one that can outstay Alastair Cook and give us a run for our money. As I write between them Cook and Trott make-up 40% of the book, a combined 6/4 to be leading scorer. You’d be pushed to name one to deny them. Right now Cook is the real deal. He has the capability to grind it out and occupy, he is not without shots but is clearly in that zone to which few can aspire and at around 4/1 looks the bet for this game.

Eight point line a lot for Baltimore to cover

Big Man with Football — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 13:44:16 GMT

Home advantage is a hugely significant factor in the playoffs, but after going unbeaten at home all season and with a rabid home following behind them, Baltimore's home advantage for their battle with the Houston Texans is absolutely critical. This season the Ravens have been imperious at the M&T Bank stadium, while away from home they've lost four games, underperforming hugely in many of those fixtures. In Seattle and Jacksonville in particular they really failed to deliver on their usual high standards and while a post-Steelers slump was undoubtedly a factor there too, there is no danger of anything less than full intensity from the Ravens tomorrow afternoon.

The Houston Texans were badly hit by the regular season injury to passer Matt Schaub, but the absence of their signal caller still could be overstated in the odds on offer this week. After all, while TJ Yates is still very inexperienced at this level, Houston performed as well as they did all season without the influence of league leading wideout Andre Johnson, and number 80 is clearly a factor once again after securing five receptions for 90 yards against the Bengals in the wild card round. His return more than compensates for the absence of Schaub.

Also, let's be honest here - Yates might be a little out of his depth at this level, but Baltimore QB Joe Flacco hasn't exactly posted playoff calibre numbers all year and they need a big day from Ray Rice just as much as Houston need Arian Foster to produce the goods. Flacco may have a little more experience at this level and he has connected well with Torrey Smith on occasion, but consistency has still eluded him and the secondary of the Houston Texans is without doubt the most improved unit in the league this year.

When these sides met in October, Baltimore defended the threat of Foster very successfully and restricted him to just 49 yards on 15 carries. If they can do that again and force Yates to air the ball out 40 times or more, they will win here and probably cover the spread as well. However similarly, Houston will know that if they can shut down Rice, Flacco is capable of throwing interceptions when airing the ball out.

If this was the Broncos at the Patriots or the Giants at the Packers, the 7.5pt spread would be relatively small - however in a game like this where the ball will be kept on the ground and drives will regularly last for five minutes or more, that's a large margin for Baltimore to cover. It's easy to close your eyes and imagine Terrell Suggs knocking the ball out of Yates' hands, or Ed Reed picking off a loose throw, but Houston's turnover differential this year was better than Baltimore's and they too can threaten a turnover at any stage of the game.

Rarely have two playoff sides mirrored each other so accurately, with so little to choose between them in the main aspects of the game. Home advantage will probably be enough to get Baltimore over the line, or to justify favouritism at least, but Boylesports' betting line of Houston plus eight is high in a game of this nature, high enough to justify an investment on our part.

Fine Ulster home record to continue

Ruck Driver — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 17:13:52 GMT

Of all the ties down for decision over the penultimate weekend of Heineken Cup action, none is more intriguing or engaging than Ulster's battle with the Leicester Tigers tomorrow night at Ravenhill. This is a genuine must win fixture for both teams and while both teams are still well in contention in their domestic leagues, the European Cup remains the holy grail for both panels, the one trophy that they prize above all others.

Traditionally Ravenhill is one of the toughest grounds in Europe to get a result for travelling sides, but there aren't too many clubs with more experience of fearsome away fixtures than Leicester, who were the first club to beat Munster at Thomond Park and so know all they need to know about knocking off highly favoured home teams.

However the run up to this fixture hasn't been kind to the Tigers and the absence of second row Louis Deacon and fly half Toby Flood is likely to greatly impede the visitors as they look to control the game in Belfast. Manu Tuilagi also misses out, though the Tigers are unlikely to be too worried about the midfield battle as neither Anthony Allen nor Matt Smith are obvious weak links - indeed the centre partnership is likely to be one sector where the Tigers will feel confident that they can make gains.

Ulster, in contrast, have received good news on the injury front with both Ian Humphreys and Pedrie Wannenburg passing fit to start. Both men have been named in Ulster Head Coach Brian McLaughlin's starting XV and will augment a team that has shown some excellent form in the Rabodirect Pro 12 in recent weeks. Indeed if we leave out the farcical Boxing Day game at the RDS when Brian McLaughlin essentially selected a reserve XV, Ulster have now won five games in a row, registering four bonus points in the process and scoring an average of 35 points per match. That's the kind of high tempo stuff that they'll need to produce against the standard bearers for the Aviva premiership.

After a very wobbly start to the season, Leicester have also found a rich vein of form. Ten wins and one draw out of their last twelve starts suggests that the club is certainly capable of getting a result tomorrow night, even if they are deservedly underdogs in the betting to do so. If they are to take all four points, they will undoubtedly look towards their grizzled front row of Martin Castrogiovanni, Rob Hawkins and Marcos Ayerza to dominate in the scrums and rucks, particularly against the more mobile Ulster trio. Nonetheless Ulster have the players to keep the ball moving and keep the tempo high and crucially, in Stephen Ferris they have probably the most devastating ball carrier at close range in this game.

Ulster at 4/5 with Boylesports look like the best bet for what should be a wonderful night of rugby in the province.

Westmeath set to improve

Lone Shark — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 16:44:50 GMT

The performances of college teams in the first week of preseason competition were pretty much on a par with what was widely expected - UUJ, NUIG, DCU, WIT and UCD all secured significant victories, while Athlone IT came very close to recording another triumph for the third level sector, only to get reeled in by Longford late in their game.

However while the colleges usually perform well in the first week of competition, the county sides are starting from a lower base, having only resumed collective training on New Year's Day (theoretically at least!) and having got one game under their belts, they should be expected to improve significantly between now and January.

As an Offaly native, this writer was of course in O'Connor Park to see Offaly beat Westmeath on a 3-6 to 0-7 scoreline. It's difficult to make every game, but games against Westmeath are always must-see occasions, even if there is little or nothing at stake on paper! Finishing is of course a crucial part of gaelic football and any team that misses a lot of chances deserved to be punished, but in this tie Westmeath enjoyed the majority of possession, and created four goal chances, including two that really should have been finished to the net. They took none. Offaly created four of their own, and took three - and that single statistic more than any other indicates why the home side won the game.

Now contrast that with the Kildare vs DIT match, where the Lily whites lorded the match, dominating possession and generally reducing the students to nothing only scraps from frees. Their eight point win over DIT was very much a fair margin, which is no surprise when we see the calibre of player that graduated from DIT over the summer. No college side has lost so many key players and while they still have plenty of good footballers, they are nowhere near the level they were at in 2010 or 2011.

If we take it that Kildare are deemed to be five points better than Offaly for this week, as the odds suggest, then Offaly are a good three or four points better than DIT. Even if we presume that Offaly are two or three points better than the current Westmeath selection - which is probably a fair reflection based on last week's match - then Westmeath should, by extension by a point or two better than DIT.

Of course this is very fuzzy logic, however there is also the much more significant fact that Westmeath will benefit a lot more for having got an extra game under their belts, while DIT, since they have played a lot of league games together, shouldn't really improve so much for one extra game. Add in home advantage for the Lake County and the fact that Denis Glennon will probably start, who certainly knows how to take goal chances, and overall the price starts to look silly.

As with all preseason games however, it would be foolish to ignore the flow of money and the money has only gone one way so far. Hills started at 6/4 DIT and were forced to cut into 11/10, while Powers started at 8/11 and have gone into 8/13. Nonetheless while this tempers our expectations, logic still dictates that at the 6/4 on offer from Powers and Ladbrokes, Westmeath look like a solid play this weekend in the O'Byrne Shield.

Giants getting healthy and dangerous

Big Man with Football — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 15:50:13 GMT

Traditionally, the NFC East has always been the strongest division in the NFL. Three of the four NFC North teams have won at least three Super Bowls, while no other division has more than one team that has achieved this feat. Usually, the NFC East winners are one of the most feared teams in the playoffs, however this year was the first time that the division was ever won by a team with seven losses, or only nine wins. On seven previous occasions the division was won by a 10-6 team, though it was notable that only winners with 12-4 records or better went on to win the big prize - though the Giants did win Super Bowl XVII as a wild card having gone 10-6 in the regular season.

However as a 9-7 team, the Giants were widely regarded as the weakest of all six playoff teams in the National Football Conference, and many Green Bay followers would have been cheering for the Giants in advance of their wild card round win over the Atlanta Falcons. However the comprehensive manner of that victory will undoubtedly have many cheese heads wondering if they could be in for a tough test this week and if they might have been better testing the southerners in the biting cold Wisconsin weather.

The betting market certainly isn't writing off the Giants. 7.5pt spreads are generally offered, while the biggest match betting price available in the European market is 29/10 from Bet365 - which isn't exactly dismissing Big Blue out of hand.

In breaking down this game, the big question is how will Aaron Rodgers perform? It will be three weeks since the Green Bay QB took a meaningful snap by the time he takes to the field at Lambeau, and while he will have had plenty of rest and should be mentally ready, snaps at practice simply don't give you a feel for quite how quickly you have to make decisions in a game time situation. Certainly he's likely to be under huge pressure in this game as the Giants pass rush is truly outstanding, with several players capable of getting to the quarterback in the backfield. Even taking one or two drives to get settled in could lead to the Giants taking an early lead.

Two injury doubts are likely to have a huge bearing. Aaron Ross has trained with his team this week but if the corner back is at anything less than full strength, the Giants backfield is likely to be overstretched. Offensively, the Packers badly need a fully fit Chad Clifton for this game. The left tackle is one of the mainstays of this team and it's no good having potent downfield threats if Rodgers is forced to release the ball quicker than he'd like on a regular basis.

Over the course of the season, the Giants receiving corps have matured into one of the most potent groups in the league and while Eli Manning is often deemed to be a notch below elite level in the NFL, he has got a Super Bowl ring to his name and will relish the chance of taking on the vulnerable Green Bay secondary. Another shootout along the lines of the week 17 battle between the Packers and Lions is unlikely, but it's no coincidence that the total points betting lines pitch this game as the highest scoring encounter of the weekend, even though Tom Brady and Drew Brees are both in action elsewhere. The Giants struggled during their mid season slump but they've hit a richer vein of form now and if they can take what opportunities come their way in the early stages and maybe put Rodgers under pressure to throw early and thus reduce the impact of Greg Jennings out wide, they can lead this at half time. Leading at full time is another matter entirely and ultimately we still think the NFC championship game will be played at Lambeau Field, but not before a wobble or two. Giants to lead at half time and the Packers to win is 7/1 with Stan James and Betpack and could very easily represent the best value bet of the entire weekend.

Broncos galloping freely now

Big Man with Football — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 14:55:30 GMT

It's probably reasonable to assume that most of the readers of this column had some interest in music as teenagers, and as such most will remember that guy who always seemed to like the "early stuff" of any band, who bragged about how he liked the good bands before they were well known, or else refused to like them if they became mainstream too soon.

Since vocabulary is a wonderful, evolving thing, these individuals have become known as "hipsters", and are generally renowned for acting "cool" while not actually claiming to like or be interested in anything, except to criticise pretty much everything for being uncool.

In the betting industry, it's not unknown for a little bit of that "hipster" tendency to creep into odds compilers, who have been known to run down everything that's fashionable and the subject of hype. Sometimes, this can be a good thing. After all, as any poker player will tell you, it might be fun to constantly pay blinds hoping to hit straight and flush draws, but the smart money is usually on the guy holding top pair taking the pot. It's nice to talk about that time you filled up a straight on the river, but anyone telling such tales is usually talking about the only hand they won out of twenty played.

In sports betting, compilers are usually slow to get on the side of the next big thing, instead preferring to stick with the tried and trusted sides. There is no greater example of this than this weekend's huge AFC playoff match between the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos. The New England Patriots are the real deal - their quarterback and head coach have been there and done that several times, they have a nice balanced offense, and in the football era when the quarterback is king, they have a genuine, blue chip, undisputed class act taking the snaps in Tom Brady.

Then we have the Broncos, led by a technically deficient, unorthodox left hander who spends most of his time talking about Jesus but who somehow, someway, has guided Denver to this point where they are only two games away from playing in the Super Bowl. 316 yards passing against Pittsburgh? Great stuff - but on only ten completions? That's incredible stuff, so you can rest assured that in every trading room in every large betting firm either side of the Atlantic, there are smug compilers saying that even divine intervention won't be enough to save the Broncos this week against New England.

They may be right, but a lot of things are being ignored here. The Broncos defense is playing some great ball right now, and rest assured they will get through and put Tom Brady on the ground on more than a few occasions. Offensively, they are running the ball extremely well, and they have reshaped the "option" formation since making the playoffs, to the point that it is a fresh and potent threat once again. Above all, they have momentum. This is a franchise that has bought into everything that Tim Tebow does, and a franchise that genuinely believes that the sky is the limit for them. To quote the famous number 15 "If you believe, then unbelievable things can sometimes be possible."

Of course travelling to Foxboro is a huge ask, and Bill Belicheck has clearly been up to his old tricks going looking for Josh McDaniels to join his coaching staff for the remainder of the season - McDaniels being the coach who drafted Tebow in Denver and who arguably knows more about the Broncos players than any coach outside of Colorado - but New England have a lot of problems here too. Do they send up safeties to stop the run and run the risk of Tebow isolating their corner backs in one on one situations? What Patriot outside linebacker is capable of stopping Tebow from cutting outside and getting over six or seven yards per carry? How long can you keep working with great production at tight end and in the slot, but with no real downfield threat? Above all, not since 2007 have the Patriots won a post season game and no matter what these players will say publicly, they know they've underachieved in the post season in recent years. They can win this one, but with Denver available at 11/2, or with a fourteen point start from Ladbrokes, it's time to take on those hipster compilers and share a little bit of Tebow's belief. This one isn't done yet folks, not by a long way.

Jax to keep Falcons close

Big Man with Football — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 16:16:26 GMT

Tomorrow night's battle between Jacksonville and Atlanta should be a nailed on certainty on current form, and yet there will be a fair amount of trepidation in the Falcons' war room right now as they examine the footage of the Jags' 41-14 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday. This is not the same Jaguars team which struggled badly in the early stages of the year.

This was always likely to be a rebuilding year for the Jaguars, and it took an unusual turn when the franchise was put up for sale and head coach Jack Del Rio was shown the door in the same week. Nonetheless that kind of sudden upheaval shouldn't hide the fact that this a group that has a lot less work to do than many of the headless franchises out there. Defensively, they do a lot of things well. Their run defense is rock solid, and overall their record of 302 yards per game conceded is fourth in the NFL - that's a pretty good foundation for any team.

The jury is out on how much longer they can keep expecting "Pocket Hercules" Maurice Jones-Drew to keep producing miracles, however for this year at least he's back on form and currently leads the league in rushing yards after his explosion of form against the Buccaneers. An offense producing 260 yards per game is shocking, but Blaine Gabbert has merely taken some time to settle into the NFL, and as we discussed before here on Betting.com, if he wasn't being measured by the ridiculously good play of some of the other rookie QBs in the league - Dalton, Locker, and of course Newton - there wouldn't be too many eyebrows raised. However he's finally starting to show a little awareness, make some better decisions, and he really looks like he could still develop into a franchise quarterback. Expect him to throw for between 180 and 200 yards again this week - hardly the stuff of legend, but enough to keep his team in contention, particularly if he keeps the interceptions down to one, or better yet none at all.

The Falcons of course are in another place entirely. Their comeback win against the Panthers last week was playoff calibre stuff and they finally look like the team that secured playoff home advantage last season. Their offense took some time to click but we're beginning to see just why they paid such a high price for Julio Jones, and if they can keep finding ways to bring Jacquizz Rodgers into the game, they might find that the high speed back is the wild card that they've needed to really push on.

Atlanta should win this game, but with both sides likely to lean heavily on the run, at least in the early stages, eleven points is a substantial spread to have to cover. Our gut feeling is that it's a couple of points too high. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers have conceded fewer 20 yard plus passing plays this year - Atlanta are likely to lean heavily on Tony Gonzalez, Harry Douglas in the slot and perhaps a few screen passes to Rodgers, not to mention plenty of Michael Turner. Total points of 42.5 looks a touch too high, and certainly taking the 11.5 point start with Bwin should be a good betting play.

Brigids with the better form, but work to do

Lone Shark — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 15:40:49 GMT

This Sunday's Leinster senior club football final between Garrycastle and St Brigids sees two sides with very different profiles going head to head. St Brigids have got to this final the hard way, with comprehensive victories over Summerhill and Horeswood, not to mention hard fought wins over Kilmacud Crokes, Portlaoise and St Oliver Plunketts Eoghan Ruadh - arguably the three strongest club sides in the province . Garrycastle on the other hand have done all they needed to do, but wins over Longford Slashers, Athy and a narrow success over Mullingar Shamrocks in a replay is hardly the formline of potential provincial winners by comparison. They can't be held responsible in the sense that you can only beat what's put in front of you, but the four point margin of their win over Athy was somewhat flattering due to Gary Dolan's late goal and even in Westmeath, Garrycastle have struggled this year against high class opponents.

In terms of experience however, the Westmeath champions have the upper hand. Several of their players are taking part in their sixth Leinster campaign in the last decade, while for St Brigids this is very much uncharted territory. They have a few survivors from their last foray into Leinster in 2003, but largely speaking they aren't accustomed to playing at this time of year. However the Blanchardstown/Castleknock men were good enough to overcome this handicap against Portlaoise, so there is no reason why they wouldn't be able to do the same on Sunday in O'Connor Park.

For Garrycastle, there has to be a sense of "do-or-die" about Sunday's game. Stalwart players like Dessie Dolan and David O'Shaughnessy aren't getting any younger, and they've also thrived under the guidance of Galway native Anthony Cunningham, who will be departing the post to devote most of his attention to the Galway hurling job as soon as they get knocked out. O'Connor Park will be a familiar venue to many of their players and the large playing surface should ensure a high scoring game. They are underdogs, but they have every advantage that they could possibly have hoped for.

Oddly enough, despite the impressiveness on paper of St Brigids' win over Portlaoise, that tie also pointed the way for Garrycastle to attack this game. Brigids crowded the midfield in the quest for breaking ball, but they left a lot of space in the half forward line for overlapping wing backs to attack. If Garrycastle have the discipline to sit deep, maybe with Dessie Dolan operating as a playmaker behind the midfielders instead of just in front, they could create plenty of scoring opportunities by way of the fast break. Big inside forwards like Gary Dolan and Paddy Mulvihill can stay close to goal while James Dolan, who has been a revelation this year in his new role as a wing forward, would be well equipped to drop deep and still take advantage of space when the opportunity arises.

Certainly Garrycastle have to be cognisant of the threat posed by Paddy Andrews at centre forward and playing deeper so as to smother out his influence could be no bad thing either.

All told, St Brigids have the better formline and marginally the better players, but Garrycastle will want this victory that bit more, as is only natural since they have chased this Leinster title for a decade now. Stan James top the betting at 5/2 about a Garrycastle win and that could be worth a speculative play, purely on those grounds.

Compilers over-rating Blues' chances

Ruck Driver — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 05:45:00 GMT

When playing competitively, there is no room for mercy. That's true on the field of play, and it's equally true when trying to stay profitable in your betting. Watch any team from last weekend's Heineken Cup and whatever tactic they employed, it always involved the same thing - stretch your opponent, and then attack them at the point where they are weakest.

The same approach can be used to equally powerful effect when betting.

This weekend is the perfect example. Most online bookmakers would have perhaps two rugby compilers on their payroll, and on the Monday immediately after a round of Heineken Cup fixtures with another game to come, those two compilers are flat out. They have to digest all the results from the previous weekend's play and get out another set of lines, with marketing execs and product managers screaming for new betting. One line three or four points wrong will lead to the sharks having a field day, so most time and effort is spent on getting the handicaps and match betting correct. What this often leads to is some very quick and thoughtless revision of outright betting markets.

Much like life in general, attention spans in the betting game have decreased hugely in recent years. Where once the revision of antepost betting is big news, now people want to bet on something that will take place soon. Betting to collect months down the road simply doesn't satisfy the craving quick enough. The increase in betting in play turnover is partially down to the much greater number of sporting events being broadcast on TV, but it also owes a lot to people preferring to bet on the game that's on now instead of the one that they'd have to wait for, even if they know that bit more about the later match.

For those of us looking to bet with discipline and for profit, that leaves the door open - because turnover dictates that while the match lines will be pored over in detail, the outright betting may get knocked out quickly. Even if mistakes are made, they don't get snapped up as quickly.

One obvious example here is Pool 2. Edinburgh are 6/5 to win at home to Cardiff this weekend with Paddy Power, and 11/10 with Stan James. If they win that match, even while conceding a bonus point for winning by seven or less, they will be joint top of the table. We've also learned from last week that Racing Metro are very much going to phone it in from here - which also suits Edinburgh down to the ground because they'll have to travel to France in week five, the same weekend when the Cardiff Blues will face a very tricky trip to London Irish.

All things being equal, Edinburgh, if they win this week, should be in a situation whereby they'll have a home game against London Irish to top their pool in week 6. Now neither of those home games are open goals by any stretch of the imagination, but neither do the two prices multiply out to anything close to the rather ridiculous 8/1 currently on offer from Totesport and Betfred. While there is a chance that they could lose in France, if they beat Cardiff and London Irish at home, they'll top the group regardless.

With three bonus points in the bag and another five point haul likely this week, London Irish themselves cannot be discounted. They know they will have to win a game away from home to Edinburgh to have any chance, but they'll also know that if they win their next two home games, they'll have put their own fate back in their own hands no matter what happens elsewhere. That's not a bad position to be in after starting with consecutive defeats.

London Irish are available at 8/1 with Skybet and Ladbrokes, and taking these two prices essentially gives you a 7/2 bet on Cardiff not winning the group. The Blues may have done well to grind out results so far but they aren't that far ahead of the pack by any stretch of the imagination. The compilers have left us with a two on one overlap out on the wing. All that remains is to finish it out from here.

49ers to crush Cards' playoff hopes

Big Man with Football — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 22:11:13 GMT

The NFC West title may be done and dusted, but both the Cardinals and the Seahawks remain in the running for wild card places in their conference, at least for one more week. The Cardinals received a boost this week with the news that 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis is likely to miss Sunday's game in Arizona, but even so, we're going to side with the newly crowned divisional champions to cover the 3.5 point handicap betting spread and kill any last vestige of hope that might have been hanging around the Cardinals' franchise.

Arizona won't always get the kind of charity they got last weekend when Dallas head coach Jason Garrett comically iced his own kicker, but credit should also be given to the Cards for putting themselves in a position where they were able to bring the game to overtime and then pull through on the back of LaRod Stephens-Howling's 53 yard score. Unquestionably, this is a very different Cardinals team to the side that started 1-6. Even though Kevin Kolb hasn't enjoyed a lot of success under centre for his new team, he still gives them a much better chance of victories than any of the alternatives. Wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is still playing hard, which is commendable bearing in mind that he banked the most lucrative contract ever signed by any receiver in the summer, and while Beanie Wells is not quite at full strength, he is doing enough to keep the offense balanced. With good drafting, this is a franchise that is well placed to improve significantly next year.

However Wells and the rest of the Cardinals offense face a huge challenge this Sunday against what is fast becoming the most phenomenal rushing defense the league has ever seen. Twelve games in, the 49ers have yet to give up 100 yards to any rusher and they've yet to concede a TD on the ground. Bearing in mind that the record for rushing touchdowns conceded in a sixteen game season is four, the odds on the 49ers breaking that mark this year look very short.

The potential absence of Willis could be crucial in that regard this week. The Pro Bowler is an incredible athlete who continues to rack up the tackles and pressure the passer in equal measure, and while he's been very well supported by NaVorro Bowman this year, it'll be interesting to see if Bowman can carry the workload in Willis' absence.

However even if Wells does go where no other rusher has gone before this season - into the 49ers endzone - the Cards will still find it very hard to stay within the 3.5 point spread. Quite simply, their defensive front is just not strong enough to stop Frank Gore from running all over them, with Kendall Hunter likely to chip in with a meaningful contribution of his own. Out wide, Michael Crabtree is in fine form and linking up well with Alex Smith, and the 49ers seem to have recovered extremely well from hitting a speed bump against the Baltimore Ravens. The Vegas betting line has already moved to 4.0 from 3.5, and while 3.5 is still to be had on this side of the Atlantic Ocean, it should be snapped up.

Not until you see the whites of their eyes...

Match of the Day — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 18:25:43 GMT

The art of betting on games where one side has more cause for effort than the other is tricky at the best of times. Sometimes resting players can be a clear sign that teams aren't going to try an inch, while other times a tougher challenge might come about from a group of hungry young reserves than a team full of overpaid starters who know that there is nothing to be played for. All the while, other factors can also come into play that determine the will, or indeed the won't, of one of the teams.

Tonight's game between Manchester City and Bayern Munich is the perfect example. Bayern have no incentive to go all out for a result, while the lack of depth in their squad means that anything more than a few senior players being rested will result in manager Jupp Heynckes having to dig deep and give opportunities to a few very raw youngsters. However at least these younger players can be guaranteed to give complete and total commitment, since they get a chance to prove themselves against some very highly rated opposition.

The other aspect of this is of course the state of mind in the Bayern dressing room beforehand. It's quite possible that they'll take the view that Manchester City are a genuine contender for the Champions League trophy later in the year, certainly much more so than Napoli, and that they would be wise to take them out of the race now, while they can.

However until we see them on the field, it's impossible to tell what mindset Bayern will be in - making it the perfect game for an early in play trade. Nowadays a lot of in-running betting is either automated, or done by junior traders, who will simply assume that the starting match price is correct, and base all their subsequent betting decisions on that. What we also know is that if Bayern are going all out to win this game, particularly with a team close to full strength, 9/2, as is available from several firms, is far too big a price. Equally, if Bayern are planning on simply fulfilling the fixture, then 4/6 about Man City is just as excessive.

Hence the title of this column - wait till you see the whites of their eyes. If the football on show in the first ten minutes suggests that Bayern are here to attack Man City and to eliminate a dangerous rival from the race for the Champions League title, then even at 7/2, or better yet 2/1 in the draw no bet market, they will represent great value. Equally if you see players pulling out of tackles, lazy long balls or forwards not pressurising defenders walking out with the ball, then you know that Man City want this way more and that they will find a way to win. If that's the case, hope that they don't score for the first ten minutes and that the 4/6 holds up - then get out your good betting shovel and dig in.