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Special offer dictates out bets

Ruck Driver — Thu, 17 May 2012 13:11:08 GMT

Much like last year, when our preview of the minor betting markets for the Heineken Cup Final was dominated by a special offer, so it is the case once again this year. Here at Betting.com we like to be neutral, but when a bookie comes up with a refund offer that significantly affects the percentages, then we have to become a little bit one sided.

Powers have decreed that if Brian O'Driscoll scores at any time in the game, they will refund all tryscorer bets. O'Driscoll is best priced at 3/1 to score a try at any time (Ladbrokes) while Boylesports are betting as short as 2/1 about a try for the midfield maestro, so it's fair to say that this creates at least a 25% edge for all bets struck with the emerald-coloured Irish betting firm.

Of course, now, we have to ask - which are the players most likely to cross the whitewash in a game featuring two very contrasting styles? As we discussed earlier in the week here on betting.com, Ulster will be keen to play an abrasive brand of rugby, seeking to dominate the set piece and restrict the flow of ball out to the Leinster back line. Players like John Afoa and Rory Best have had a great season in the loose and their contribution to the cause will be massive - but that aspect of the game doesn't necessarily make either player a likely bet to score a try. However when allied to Leinster's possible weakness in the lineout, then suddenly the case for Best starts to grow.

The Ireland International hooker has rewarded his betting followers with a few very significant tries in the past and while Leinster's lineout functioned very well at the weekend - it was largely because they avoided Ali Kellock and Richie Grey and instead looked to go for players like Jamie Heaslip at the tail. That's all very well when you can take that slightly riskier option, but either an Ulster put in, or else a lineout close to the Leinster line, should see the ball being thrown up for the second rows to contest. Brad Thorn and Leo Cullen are very experienced campaigners but we're betting the Johann Muller and Dan Tuohy would fancy their chances of a rob in that situation, and if so, somebody like Rory Best popping up at the base of a ruck or maul would be no surprise whatsoever.

Powers are betting 9/1 that the hooker gets in for a score and that's the kind of bet that we really like this week.

On the Leinster side, it may sound too easy or the symptom of a lack of imagination, but it's hard to look anywhere else other than in Rob Kearney's direction. The international full back is in the form of his life but he's also cutting some great running lines through midfield, and it would be no surprise to see Leinster running straight at Ruan Pienaar where possible. Leicester full back Geordan Murphy spoke this week about how crucial Pienaar's kicking is to the Ulster men and how it's "not so easy to land all those long-range penalties with a dead leg or bruised ribs". If Leinster can attack the 7/10 channel, Kearney is the type of guy who could very easily appear off the shoulder to finish off a break. Powers are 9/4 here that he scores and while that's a long way short of Ladbrokes, who are betting 3/1 about the same outcome, the prospect of a potential refund is enough for us here at Betting.com to put our bet down on a betting slip with a green header as opposed to red.

Numbers stack up in Bayern's favour

Match of the Day — Thu, 17 May 2012 12:40:22 GMT

It may not be the final that everyone expected, but the meeting of Chelsea and Bayern Munich next Saturday is no less intriguing for that, particularly since it will mark the first time since 1984 that a club will play the Champions League/European Cup final in their home ground - and as Dundee United fans will tell you, if there was any justice, AS Roma would have had no place in that final against Liverpool either.

The pre match betting lines make Bayern rough 0.6 goal favourites. A handful of bookmakers bet 5/6 Bayern to win the match inside 90 minutes, while Bwin's odds of 5/11 are the best available for those looking for a wager on Bayern to win the trophy, whether that be in normal time, extra time or by way of the dreaded penalty shootout.

In order to ascertain if this betting is correct, the first thing is to discern whether or not this is truly a home game for Bayern, and from what does home advantage originate? In practical terms, the absence of any travelling requirement, familiarity with home field and the comfort of being able to prepare as you would for a domestic league game are all considerations that the bookmaking/betting community have undoubtedly allowed for. However unlike a normal home fixture for the German club, this time they will be playing in front of a 50/50 crowd due to the necessity to split up the ticket allocations.

The best we can do when examining this aspect is to look at the previous occasions where this has occurred. Ten previous European Cup/Champions League finals have been played in either the home field or else the home country of one of the teams:

1957 Bernabeu, Real Madrid 2-0 Fiorentina

1965 San Siro, Internazionale 1-0 Benfica

1968 Wembley, Manchester United 4-1 Benfica (AET)

1972 Rotterdam, Ajax 2-0 Internazionale

1978 Wembley, Liverpool 1-0 Club Brugge

1984 Rome, Roma 1-1 Liverpool

1986 Seville, Barcelona 0-0 Steaua Bucharest

1996 Rome, Juventus 1-1 Ajax

1997 Munich, Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Juventus

2011 Wembley, Manchester United 1-3 Barcelona

So overall the record for home teams is 5-4-1. From a betting perspective, Real (1957), Liverpool (1978), Barcelona (1986) would all have been seen as the stronger side at the time, while of the "away" teams, Liverpool (1984), Juventus (1997) and Barcelona (2011) would have been installed as betting favourites on a neutral venue. So since that balances out, overall the numbers suggest that home advantage is just as strong, regardless of the balance of the crowd.

If home field is worth anything over and above home country, then that's a bonus, but for now we'll disregard that aspect.

So now, when considering the betting for this fixture, the next question becomes - who would be the favourite on a neutral ground? Since odds of 5/6 or 4/5 are in keeping with a home team that would be perhaps between 0.1 and 0.2 of a goal stronger on a neutral venue, anything more than that suggests that Bayern are a value bet, whereas any less would point us towards a wager on the London club.

Overall English clubs have had a better record than German clubs in the competition, but Bayern are an outlier in that they are way better than the average German side. They have a better record than the average Premiership side since the Champions League was born (49% vs 43%), and they've been remarkably consistent in that time. So our question now boils down to two simple yes or no sub-questions.

(1) Are Bayern as good as Bayern usually are?

Taking their league and Champions League form as a whole, then the answer is in or around the average.

(2) Are Chelsea as good as an average English team?

Even allowing for their turnaround since Di Matteo has taken over, the Premier League table does not lie, and here we'd have to say no.

So if Bayern are marginally better than the average English team, and Chelsea are worse than the average English team, that suggests that Bayern should be stronger favourites on a neutral venue. At home, they should be stronger still. The betting seems underdone, and the Germans are the value for Saturday's big game.

Minor injury concerns not enough to derail Leinster

Ruck Driver — Tue, 15 May 2012 16:30:54 GMT

Leinster's injury issues are all over the news at the moment and speculation is rife throughout the media regarding how the reigning European champions will fare, at centre in particular, on Saturday. Brian O'Driscoll is currently recovering from minor keyhole surgery on his knee, Gordon Darcy needed stitches in his head after the province's battle with Glasgow on Saturday, and Eoin O'Malley is expected to be out for six months after sustaining a cruciate ligament injury. The old pairing of O'Driscoll and Darcy will probably start, but it's far from certain that they will be at full health.

However despite all this, Leinster manager Joe Schmidt is entitled to be very happy with the general health of his squad and those looking at Saturday's game from a betting point of view should be similarly satisfied that Leinster are in good shape, or as good as can be expected at this stage of a season that will have included 33 games by the time it's over. Some amount of wear and tear is to be expected in that situation and rest assured plenty of the Ulster squad will be feeling the effects of their year of rugby just as much.

Not unlike last weekend, the bookmakers are quite consistent in their betting lines. Handicap marks of seven and eight are generally available, with eight the more common mark of the two. Glasgow's defensive effort at the weekend will undoubtedly be examined in detail by the Ulster coaches this week as they did a great job against the home side, restricting them to one try. After all if Ulster can repeat that, it's a stonewall certainty that handicap backers of the Northerners will collect, whatever about match betting punters.

However a closer inspection of that fixture gives us some indication as to why that may have been the case, and without meaning to sound too critical - after all Betting.com readers were on the side of Glasgow in this game - referee George Clancy certainly played his part. “If you want defenders to dominate, have slow ruck ball,” said Schmidt after the game, and it wasn't difficult to read between the lines of that comment. There might have been swifter sanctions against the visitors for their defence of ruck situations, while on the other side of the ball, Clancy's interpretation of "holding on" was very strict. On another day, the penalty count of 14-13 in Glasgow's favour could have been a lot more favourable to Leinster.

So what does all this mean from a betting perspective? Here at betting.com, our view is that Glasgow set their stall out to try and execute a smash and grab raid, which suited our wagering play on their side. However Ulster will have to play to their strengths if they are to secure a win and that will involve a lot more smash mouth rugby in close quarters, and quick recycling of possession. If this game is reduced to a tactical kicking battle, Johnny Sexton is in the form of his life and not too many people would bet against him winning that particular war, all the more so against a relatively unproven half back combination for the Ulstermen. As such, we feel Ulster have to go after this game and that could be their undoing. Expect a more expansive match, and Leinster to cover the spread. We will revisit the game later in the week to look at things like tryscorer betting, margin betting and all the other wagering options that are on offer, but for the moment, and primarily, this looks like Leinster's game to win.

Goalscorers under scrutiny due to new rules

Lone Shark — Tue, 15 May 2012 14:40:47 GMT

As we all know, betting advice columns such as this one are supposed to work within certain parameters, golden rules, if you will. One of those is that the margin contained within first goalscorer betting is enough to make any bookmaker salivate with self-satisfaction, and so there would have to be a serious edge in order for any bet to be worthy of recommendation in such a market.

That could happen later in the week, when the bookmakers have put up their betting market early but the teams have been either announced late, or word creeps out of a late change and a player who was supposed to line out at midfield or wing forward instead takes his place in the full forward line.

This week however, will be utterly fascinating from both a football and a betting point of view. The championship fixtures taking place this weekend in all four provinces will be the first games to take place under the new square ball rules, where attacking players are allowed to contest high possession against the goalkeeper, even if the ball drops inside the small square. This is a significant rule change, as we've all seen goals ruled out time and again for the dreaded "square ball", and indeed if the rule was not in place last year, Tomás O'Connor's goal against Donegal would surely have stood, Kildare would have beaten the Ulster Champions and who knows how that could have affected the All Ireland series - perhaps all those punters who bet on Dublin would now be much poorer and either Kildare or Kerry bettors would be better off?

Anyway, until we see prices from bookmakers it's perhaps a little early to tell, but even so this should be an intriguing week from a first goalscorer point of view. The kind of players to keep an eye out for are Paul Conroy for Galway, Seamus O'Carroll for Limerick, Gary Hurney for Waterford, plus possibly players like Kevin Tierney in Cavan or John Heslin for Westmeath, who could be asked to fill a similar role.

Usually such a player would be offered in the betting at around 7/1 or 8/1, given a perfectly even game. Obviously a fixture like that in the Munster championship, where the match betting is 1/3 Limerick and 10/3 Waterford, would be a little different, leading O'Carroll to be shorter and Hurney to be a longer price, reflecting the unbalanced goal expectancy of the two teams. However even though square ball offences were few and far between in football generally, the new rule offers players under pressure further out the field a "get out clause", or the option to hit a Hail Mary ball into the edge of the square. That's something that really should be allowed for in making our assessments and analyses.

Our view here at betting.com is that this is worth perhaps 2% or 3% statistical adjustment for each goal, meaning that a big full forward who would otherwise be a 7/1 shot now might be a fair price at 11/2 or so. Of course time and matches will reveal if this is an over-reaction or an under-reaction, but as students of the betting game, the next move will now come from the bookmaking firms who will put their prices out there. As we well know, most firms offer their first/last goalscorer betting to a 130% over-round approximately, so even allowing for securing best price, they'd need to be almost entirely unchanged for a bet to be worthwhile - but right now, we wouldn't rule that out.

Glasgow to be competitive at the RDS

Ruck Driver — Sat, 12 May 2012 13:37:45 GMT

The prospect of an All-Ireland Rabodirect Pro 12 final may have died last night, but the bookmaking firms and the wider betting community still expect the country to be represented in the competition decider, as Leinster are clear favourites to progress in tonight's battle with the Glasgow Warriors at the RDS. However while Leinster have been blessed with relatively good health throughout this season, the effort involved in fighting battles on two separate fronts is taking a toll and perhaps their biggest advantage coming into this fixture was their ability to rest players for the final round of the regular season against the Dragons. Playing at home will of course be welcome, but rest is a valuable asset at this time of year.

The handicap betting market this week makes Leinster favourites by either twelve or thirteen points, depending on your bookmaker of choice. The one exception to this rule is Ladbrokes, who bet 10/11 each of two off an eleven point start for Glasgow - so the Magic Sign should be seeing plenty of Leinster money this week and little or none for the visitors.

So thus, here at betting.com, we ask ourselves - why have the rugby gurus at Rayners Lane come to this conclusion?

Rob Kearney and Brian O'Driscoll both miss out, with a view to having them fully fit for the big game against Ulster next weekend and while Eoin O'Malley and David Kearney are hardly inadequate replacements by any measure, Rob Kearney has been at the heart of a lot of Leinster's best back play this season. Recently voted IRUPA Player of the Year by his fellow professionals in Ireland, he and Nacewa have been the real magical sparks in this team and it would be foolish to preclude the fact that his absence may be influential.

The Ladbrokes betting brains are undoubtedly allowing too for the fact that Glasgow have the best defensive record in the league and conceded single figure totals in four of their last five league matches. Of course there is no comparison between games against teams like Connacht, Treviso, Aironi and Cardiff and playing against Leinster away from home, but it's still a good indication of the robust health of the Warriors' defensive structure. If you can keep a team like Connacht to three points, we're betting you can keep Leinster to twenty three. Secondly, Glasgow also were the bane of accumulator bettors earlier in the Spring when they held Leinster to a 10-10 draw, busting coupons all across the land.

Leinster will be rested and they have picked a quite "horses for courses" selection, with Devin Toner coming in to shore up what has been a creaky lineout at times this year. Certainly tests of lineout integrity don't come much tougher than competing with Ali Kellock and Richie Gray, so in that regard it's quite surprising that Kevin McLaughlin hasn't been drafted into the back row to offer a third option.

Issues like greater fluidity at half back, the potency of the Leinster back division and the form of their front row are likely to get Leinster over the line in this one, but our view of the handicap betting market is that thirteen points is a big head start and one that won't be easily covered. Opposing the European champions and competition favourites is not something that we do lightly, but even so our bet for this game is to take Glasgow plus thirteen.

Teams:

Leinster: 15 Isa Nacewa, 14 Fergus McFadden, 13 Eoin O'Malley, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 David Kearney, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Jamie Heaslip (capt), 7 Shane Jennings, 6 Sean O'Brien, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 Nathan White, 19 Leo Cullen, 20 Kevin McLaughlin, 21 Isaac Boss, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Andrew Conway.

Glasgow: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Federico Aramburu, 13 Alex Dunbar, 12 Graeme Morrison, 11 DTH van der Merwe, 10 Duncan Weir, 9 Chris Cusiter, 8 John Barclay, 7 Chris Fusaro, 6 Rob Harley, 5 Al Kellock (capt), 4 Richie Gray, 3 Mike Cusack, 2 Pat MacArthur, 1 Ryan Grant.
Replacements: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Jon Welsh, 18 Moray Low, 19 Tom Ryder, 20 Henry Pyrgos, 21 Johnnie Beattie, 22 Ruaridh Jackson, 23 Peter Murchie.

Respect the importance of Interaction

Match of the Day — Fri, 11 May 2012 08:27:21 GMT

When discussing betting in play strategy on these pages previously, we've stressed frequently the importance of knowing the aims of the teams on the field. Some of our biggest successes here on this particular section of betting.com have come from breaking down the second legs of matches and assessing the disconnect between the match prices and what constitutes a meaningful result on the field of play.

In those instances, when formulating our betting strategy, at least the factors were in play in advance of the match. This Sunday afternoon however, there is the possibility that the dynamics of one game will change due to scores in another - which is a completely different situation. On those grounds, the key element to any betting strategy will be to look at the different potential situations in advance, and take a clinical view of how these would cause the in-play betting market to react.

Let's look at the initial match prices and spreads, available from all the leading betting firms. Manchester City are freely available at 1/7, with the draw generally an 8/1 chance and odds of 16/1 or more available about a win for QPR. BetVictor are the firm of choice for those looking for a bet on the London club, as they offer odds of 20/1 about that outcome. The Asian handicap betting suggests that Man City are roughly 2.3 goals the better team.

Now at the Stadium of Light, Manchester United are 4/9, the draw is 7/2 and a home win is being bet at 7/1 in places. This equates to United Supremacy of 1.1 goals.

Of course the eight goal advantage that Manchester City hold in goal difference is critical, and it's also sufficiently large that we can essentially discount any swing in that situation. United must beat City's result, and if City beat QPR, the light blue half of Manchester (approximate fraction!) will be celebrating.

So what should we look out for, depending on what happens?

(1) United score early

This possibly has the least bearing on the other game. The betting currently reflects the fact that Manchester City need to win, and that will continue to be the case.

(2) City score early

Now we are looking at a potential swing. However slim, there remains the possibility that QPR could win in Manchester and a draw would be enough for United. They cannot bank on this, but there would be a renewed urgency, if only from the psychological factor. Look for the betting market to add perhaps a quarter of a goal to the total goals expectancy in the United game, with perhaps an extra tenth of a goal in supremacy to United.

(3) Sunderland score early

Now it starts to get complicated. Suddenly we have a shift in mindset among the City players and management. United have now become less than 50/50 shots to get three points out of the Stadium of Light, so a draw becomes a much more desirable result. This might not have a discernible affect on the game in the 25th minute, but you can guarantee it would in the 85th minute - so the possibility of City winning the game decreases, and the total goals expectancy should also decrease. The degree of such a shift is hard to quantify, but it could be on a scale from a quarter to over half a goal, increasing along with the lateness of tthe goal. Again, bet accordingly if the betting in play market does not react in this fashion.

(4) QPR score early

Again, this would have a profound influence on the in-play betting in Sunderland. Similarly to the hypothetical effect of a Sunderland goal for City's approach, United now have a real chance, and may even be able to win with a draw. The difference here though is that City would still be odds on to win and long odds on to at least equalise. So while there would be an increased possibility of United playing for a draw in the closing stages, there would also be a galvanising effect running counter to that.

(5) No score by half time

Similarly to the effect of goals for the underdogs, the increasing possibility of City dropping points would galvanise United, while it would also make City less likely to take risks chasing a win. It should be noted here too that this also brings the psychological factor of Manchester City's nervousness into the equation. Again, from a betting point of view, this certainly would not help City, at least from the point of view of covering a spread and winning comfortably. It's also safe to assume that if City were level and needed a win with five minutes of normal time to go, we could be looking at one of the biggest draw prices ever in the history of betting in play for that particular scenario, perhaps as big as even money.

Finally, be aware of the potential effect of City making their game safe on the game in Sunderland. If City were to go two or even three goals up by half time, the United match now essentially transforms from a competitive fixture into a friendly or exhibition game, but one that takes place in front of their hardcore supporters. That in turn could lead to more flamboyancy in an effort to at least give them a good day out, which would in turn have an influence on the betting for total goals and match win, adding to both the likelihood of goals and the volatility of the outcome.

Black night looming for Munster

Ruck Driver — Fri, 11 May 2012 06:54:26 GMT

It says a lot about Munster's longstanding legacy in the Celtic League, or the Rabodirect Pro 12 as it has now become, that they remain so feared by opponents and the betting community alike. Over the course of a long season they ended the year behind the Ospreys in the league table, they are without their two main generals in the shape of Paul O'Connell and Ronan O'Gara, they have to travel to the Liberty Stadium and yet the handicap betting market is very tight, with most oddsmakers giving the Irish province less than a converted try as their head start.

However if there is any opponent who won't fear Munster, it's the Ospreys. The Welsh side and Munster have been the kingpins in this competition since its inception, each having won the competition three times, each having made the play-offs since the new competition structure began and neither side ever left the top four this season for good measure. They've played each other 19 times in this competition, with the Welsh side shading that battle 10-9. There aren't too many teams that can boast such a healthy record against Munster over that time frame.

This year, despite all the furore over the imminent break up of the Welsh "Galacticos", they've shown even less fear of the leading Irish provinces. Despite our predictions here on betting.com, the Ospreys picked up wins at both the RDS and Thomond Park already this year and have a 7-1 record against the four Irish sides this season. Indeed their only defeat was at Ravenhill and as wagering officionados will confirm, that would still have been a winfor backers of the Welsh team on the handicap betting market .

Both sides found some form in the last few games of the season to consolidate their place in the playoffs and Munster have made a few positive changes for tonight's fixture. Ian Keatley resumes at outhalf with O'Gara available to come in off the bench if required, while Keith Earls comes back in at outside centre to bolster a back line that is solid, if not explosive. The fact that William Hill bookmakers make Earls the joint-leading Munster player in their first tryscorer betting market even though he plays in a position that would usually be fourth favourite says a lot about his value to the Reds.

Ospreys coach Steve Tandy had few choices to make for this fixture and his decision to select Samoan Kahn Fotuali'i ahead of young Welshman Rhys Webb for the scrum half slot was probably his only tricky call.

From a handicap betting point of view, the prognostication is very straight forward - back the Ospreys minus three, which is still the line with Bet365 and Hills. On a neutral venue, the Ospreys would be entitled to be rated as 1.5 points favourites, maybe even two. The absence of both O'Gara and O'Connell would shunt that up to 4.5 or 5. Now put the game in the Liberty Stadium as well? Clearly the betting firms are relying on plenty of loyalty money for the Munster men here. For this spin of the roulette wheel, we suggest a bet on black over red.

Another solid betting play could be taking Shane Williams to score a try at any time, best priced at 5/2 with Ladbrokes. The diminutive winger could very easily be playing in his last game at the Liberty Stadium and if that's the case, he'll want to give his many, many supporters something to remember. And crucially, in Shane's case, he's well capable of doing so.

The teams:

Ospreys: 15 Richard Fussell, 14 Hanno Dirksen, 13 Andrew Bishop, 12 Ashley Beck, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 8 Joe Bearman, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Ryan Jones, 5 Ian Evans, 4 Alun-Wyn Jones, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Paul James.
Replacements: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Ryan Bevington, 18 Aaron Jarvis, 19 James King, 20 Tom Smith, 21 Rhys Webb, 22 Matthew Morgan, 23 Tom Isaacs.

Munster: 15 Felix Jones, 14 Johne Murphy, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Lifeimi Mafi, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Ian Keatley, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Peter O'Mahony, 7 Tommy O'Donnell, 6 Donnacha Ryan, 5 Mick O'Driscoll, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 BJ Botha, 2 Mike Sherry, 1 Wian du Preez.
Replacements: 16 Denis Fogarty, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Stephen Archer, 19 Dave O'Callaghan, 20 Paddy Butler, 21 Tomas O'Leary, 22 Ronan O'Gara, 23 Ian Dineen.

KK at odds on - back or lay?

Lone Shark — Tue, 08 May 2012 20:32:00 GMT

After blowing Cork out of the water in the National League final, Kilkenny have plunged in the antepost betting market for the Liam McCarthy Cup, to the point that 4/5 is now the best priced wager available from any of the betting firms out there. Indeed it's notable that Paddy Power seem to be ducking the Cats entirely, offering 4/6 about a Kilkenny All Ireland success, but going best price on three of the next four counties in the betting.

Powers have also gone all the way out to 9/1 Cork, sending the Rebels back to the kind of price that they were earlier this year before the Jimmy Barry bandwagon gathered momentum. Which of course leads us to the crucial question - at 4/5, are Kilkenny a back or a lay?

Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Sunday's performance was the way that Kilkenny won so easily despite missing several of their key players. Manager Brian Cody may put on a brave face when it comes to injuries, but it's easy to do so when your reserves step in and perform so well and you still end up winning a national final by almost double scores. However the list got even longer on Sunday with Michael Fennellys withdrawal and even allowing for the other players that are due to return, no county, not even Kilkenny, can be blasé about the absence of a hurler of the year candidate.

Are Kilkenny the best of what's around at the moment? Unquestionably, the answer is yes. However it would be foolish to presume that Cork wouldn't learn from Sunday's match, Tipperary are still keeping plenty in reserve, and both Dublin and Galway should improve for their battles in the relegation playoff.

Right now, Kilkenny are storming out in front of the chasing pack, but there are enough contenders in there who have yet to show their full hand. It's not as if Kilkenny have a handy draw either. The layout of the Leinster championship means that they could have to beat all four of the other teams that are top of the betting to win the All Ireland. On that basis, now could be a good time to go against the grain and lay Kilkenny, since the betting market right now is somewhat euphoric on the Cats, but that headiness is unlikely to last. By the time the summer rolls around there will be another team that will catch the eye of the odds compilers at some point, and odds against betting will return again.

Rangers' formline suggests the Celts can win big

Match of the Day — Thu, 03 May 2012 15:40:11 GMT

As we've discussed on these pages previously, the central tenet to in-play betting is always the same - forget what the odds were at the start of the event, take in the early stages of the occasion and then after a set period of time, step back and see if what's unfolding tallies with the previously held view that caused the bookies to set their markets up as they did, however that may have been. Sometimes there will be scoring events, like goals, tries, birdies, touchdowns or whatever, and these will distort matters, but even so the biggest advantage the punter has over the firm laying the bets is the ability to set aside what was initially seen as the "accepted wisdom" and to treat the event on it's merits.

This is especially true in fixtures where it's difficult to predict what approach will be brought to the event - as is very much the case in tonight's Scottish Premier League tie between Celtic and St Johnstone.

As a relatively new enterprise, rest assured the good people of Betting.com have no wish to bring any form of Jihad down upon our own heads, however at the risk of offending some supporters from the blue half of the city of Glasgow by stating the obvious, it would be foolish to ignore last Sunday's big Old Firm clash and the manner in which Celtic essentially toyed with Rangers at Parkhead. Rangers have gone through what can only be described as a turbulent season and the prospect of being unable to sign players at the very least and possibly far, far worse was understandably a distraction all year. However our job here at Betting.com is to assess how things are likely to unfold on the field of play and the simple matter of fact is this - last night Rangers won at their ease against a mid-table team in Dundee United, and tonight Celtic, if they apply themselves correctly, are well capable of doing the same against a similar standard of opponent.

This is why this game is so suited to in-play betting. Of course the possibility that Celtic treat the fixture like one long victory lap cannot be dismissed. After all, their work for the season is done and at this stage, there is no possibility of even winning the league by less than ten points - a crucial milestone for the club so as to blow any notions of a "tainted title" out of the water. Nonetheless sometimes playing in such fixtures can allow a team to play in a more expressive fashion and if Celtic do open up against St Johnstone, they can win by plenty. The match betting of 4/11 from Ladbrokes is consistent with odds of even money minus one goal - it's notable that the Asian handicap betting markets are much more skewed in favour of the Celts. Ladbrokes may be proved right if Celtic start the game at a slow pace and essentially go through the motions, but if they come out of the blocks with intensity and play the game as they would an SPL fixture in January or February, then there is every chance of a big win here and all betting strategies should be drawn up appropriately and accordingly.

Chiefs to continue good run in Super XV

Ruck Driver — Thu, 03 May 2012 15:19:31 GMT

It's fair to say that there won't be too many rugby fans setting their alarms this Saturday morning to take in the Super XV clash between the Chiefs and the Lions in Hamilton. This is one the schedulers definitely got wrong from the point of view of giving the TV audiences an appealing fixture and the pre match handicap betting lines of seventeen, eighteen and nineteen suggest that a big win for the home side could be in the offing.

If anything, the betting for this match is a little kind to the visitors. The formlines are clear enough - the Chiefs are on an eight game winning streak, while the Johannesburg-based Lions are on the back of seven defeats in a row. They now face the dreaded trip from West to East, widely acknowledged to be the harder journey to make from the point of view of adjusting, and while the Chiefs have made a lot of changes to their team, they still look to have the power to win this by a twenty-something point margin and to reward those who show faith to the Kiwis in their wagers.

Crucially, while there are a lot of changes being made up front, coach Dave Rennie has retained most of his big name players in the back division and as the jet-lagged Lions start to tire in the closing stages, expect Brendon Leonard and Aaron Cruden to take control of this game and to create the chances that will lead to a bonus point victory.

Blue Square, Paddy Power and Stan James are among the firms still offering bets of 10/11 about the Chiefs minus a seventeen point handicap, while the Irish firm are also betting 16/5 about the Chiefs winning by 21-30 points inclusive on their winning margin market. The last four games between these sides were decided by a converted try or less - including the incredible 18-try encounter two years ago in Johannesburg that the Chiefs won by 72 points to 65 - however games between these two in New Zealand have ended with an average seventeen point winning margin for the Chiefs. Allowing for current form, our recommended bet this week is for the Chiefs to exceed that margin by one or two tries and to land in that 21-30 point middle.

Teams:

Lions 15 Andries Coetzee , 14 Deon Van Rensburg , 13 Jaco Taute , 12 Alwyn Hollenbach , 11 Lionel Mapoe , 10 Elton Jantjies , 9 Ross Cronje , 8 Joshua Strauss (c) , 7 Grant Hattingh , 6 Derick Minnie , 5 Ruan Botha , 4 Franco Van der Merwe , 3 Patric Cilliers , 2 Callie Visagie , 1 Caylib Oosthuizen / JC Janse van Rensburg

Substitutes:16 Martin Bezuidenhout , 17 CJ Van der Linde , 18 Cobus Grobbelaar , 19 Jaco Kriel , 20 Tian Meyer , 21 James Kamana , 22 Michael Killian

Chiefs 1 Toby Smith, 2. Hika Elliot, 3. Ben Tameifuna, 4. Craig Clarke (c), 5. Michael Fitzgerald, 6. Tanerau Latimer, 7. Sam Cane, 8. Kane Thompson, 9. Brendon Leonard, 10. Aaron Cruden, 11. Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 12. Sonny Bill Williams, 13. Richard Kahui, 14. Lelia Masaga, 15. Andrew Horrell

Substitutes: 16. Mahonri Schwalger, 17. Arizona Taumalolo, 18. Alex Bradley, 19. Scott Waldrom, 20. Tawera Kerr- Barlow, 21. Jackson Willison, 22. Maritino Nemani

Kilkenny suffer Power outage

Lone Shark — Tue, 01 May 2012 04:38:28 GMT

In a former life, yours truly lived on the other side of the fence - as an employee of several large betting chains. Indeed having served time as the originator of all those betting markets, our view is that all punters should be odds compilers for a while, and all odds compilers should be punters as well. After all, you don't have to study Sun Tzu in depth to realise that in betting, just as in war, mastering the art involves knowing and understanding your enemy.

One of the biggest weapons available to both the punter and the compiler is cognitive bias on the part of the other party. Odds compilers know that punters like backing short priced favourites (i.e. 1/2 or shorter) as part of accumulators, but not usually in single bets. As a result, a true odds 4/11 shot might be 2/5 if there is only one or two games available for betting, while the price could be 1/3 or 3/10 if it's just one game on a long bet coupon, where the bulk of the money will be placed in accumulator bets.

On the other side of the coin, punters often gain an advantage when the compiler has to adjust existing betting to take into account new information. All too often they take the existing market price and work based on that, changing as required, rather than stepping back and re-evaluating the event as a whole.

This weekend's National Hurling League final between Cork and Kilkenny is the perfect example. Kilkenny were initially offered at 4/11 or 2/5 generally, but now that the news has broken that Richie Power is unavailable, Paddy Powers are now 8/15 and most of the other firms are either 1/2, 4/9 or 2/5.

If this were championship and every other hurler was available to Brian Cody, this might make some sense. However Henry Shefflin remains out, Aidan Fogarty and Michael Rice are also unavailable at the moment and now we hear that Power is likely to miss between four and six weeks due to a cartilage injury sustained while hurling for Carrickshock against James Stephens at the weekend. The bookies may have factored in the first three absentees when offering their initial betting lines, but Power's injury is another massive blow and is worth at least 1.5 or 2 points to Cork. To put that into perspective, Cork at 13/5 or 11/4 would be three point underdogs. Cork as one point underdogs would be no bigger than 6/4 in the betting. And no bookie is suddenly going 6/4.

The view in Cork is that if this new look Rebel team can't beat Kilkenny in a league match with half their attack missing, then they may as well give up the ghost - and here at betting.com, we'd share that view. For frees alone, Power is hugely valuable - at least in the absence of Shefflin to replace him.

Call it cognitive bias, call it lazy compiling, call it what you want - but the simple fact is that the betting market should have been completely reformed as a result of this injury - and instead it has barely wobbled. The compilers have erred - and we, the punters, shouldn't make the same mistake. Cork are our bet this week.

Draft Review - antepost bets to watch

Big Man with Football — Tue, 01 May 2012 04:15:14 GMT

It speaks volumes about how NFL betting is treated in the UK marketplace that as massive an event as the draft has so little an impact on the antepost betting market for the Super Bowl. Teams have been won and lost in the "war rooms" that make all the critical decisions and while it's still very early to say that any particular draft choice is a sure fire winner or a bust, certainly there are some insights we can take from events of the past few days. With a view towards putting together a solid portfolio of wagers over the next few months, here are our first impressions at betting.com, ideas to keep an eye on and see if they flesh out as teams settle down.

(1) The "Dream Team" just got dreamier

Sadly, the bookmakers haven't forgotten quite how much talent is on the roster of the Philadelphia Eagles, even if their results last season did a great job of hiding that fact. Still, if 2011 brought them back down to earth a little bit, 2012 could be a hugely productive season. We know they have some outstanding weapons on the offensive side of the ball, and their secondary is, on paper, awesome. However they got three great value picks to bolster their defensive front in this draft and it's a safe bet that landing Fletcher Cox at 12 must have led to plenty of high fiving in Philly. This 21 year old rookie will immediately make an impact in both pass rushing and run defense while Mychal Kendricks and Vinny Curry are equally potent. Plenty of firms still bet 14/1 the Eagles for the Super Bowl and while that price is unlikely to shorten before a ball is kicked, it will be astonishing if Philly aren't right in the mix next year.

(2) Bengals' claws got sharper

Cincinnati often get forgotten about as the "third wheel" in the AFC North, but they did a great job in cutting some of their older players and rebuilding with some great young talent in recent seasons and that process has continued in this draft. Every new recruit looks like good value, they all fill a need on the roster, and many draft analysts had Mohamed Sanu as an early second rounder or even a late first rounder - picking him up in the third round was an absolute steal.

Based on the betting market for the AFC outright, where the Bengals are a massive 23/1 with Bwin, we could be looking at odds of 4/1 or so to win the AFC North. The Steelers and the Ravens also played a good game in this draft but the Bengals are here to stay for a long time yet and they will be well worth watching in the betting for the next while.

(3) The poor get poorer

Some of the franchises out there most in need of work illustrated perfectly how badly off they are by looking weak even after a good draft. The Raiders mortgaged their future last season to get in Carson Palmer and they had to take the pain in this draft by not getting a pick until the third round. Even though they picked up some solid players, there is a world of remedial work to be done in Oakland before they can be considered as playoff contenders. St Louis too proved how much work they have to do by going after some solid, unspectacular types, while the Seahawks made a lot of gamble-type selections. Some of those might pay off but right now there aren't too many franchises that would give up their new own recruits for those of Seattle.

(4) Saints' punishment starting to bite

Say what you like about surreptitious practices in the NFL but when a team are caught out, the sanctions have teeth and New Orleans' wounds are still smarting. The Saints did their best with scant choices in this draft and Akiem Hicks has a lot of upside, but coming out of Canada, he'd have to have upside because he has a lot of ground to make up on players who are used to playing at a higher level. While the Saints were eating the scraps from the table, the Buccs, Panthers and Falcons all dined well. The Buccaneers were said to have drafted best of the three by most critics on the far side of the Atlantic, but here at betting.com, we really like what Carolina have done. Luke Kuechly will bolster the pass rush immensely and is the kind of intelligent student of the game who can learn a detailed playbook very fast, while Amini Silatolu will open up all sorts of options in their run game.

The antepost betting suggests that the Saints will be 6/4 favourites or thereabouts for the NFC south - at those odds, we'd lay all day. It's too early to say what the best bet of the division will be, but if Carolina are available at 9/1 or 10/1, we'll certainly be tipping them up here.

League Finals in Croke Park

Lone Shark — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 13:27:11 GMT

This weekend eight counties will bring successful National Football League campaigns to a close with the action spread across two double headers at Croke Park. On Saturday evening Fermanagh face off against Wicklow while Wexford meet Longford, with the blue and gold counties underdogs in the betting in both cases.

Then on Sunday, Kildare face Tyrone at Croke Park for the second time this Spring, before Cork meet Mayo in a repeat of the 2011 All Ireland quarter final between the two counties. Here the public are favouring Cork and Tyrone, though wagers on Kildare and Mayo have plenty of justification too.

We'll start our rundown with tomorrow evening's game between Fermanagh and Wicklow. Here Powers, Ladbrokes and Hills are the leading bookmakers for those looking to bet on Fermanagh as they offer 8/13 about a win for Peter Canavan's team, while Bet365 go 15/8 about a win for Wicklow. In this fixture, here at betting.com we didn't have to give it a moment's consideration before coming to a relatively easy conclusion - take Fermanagh to cover the one point spread. Hills and Betvictor both go even money Fermanagh minus one in their handicap betting market and that makes plenty of appeal here as Fermanagh are simply the better team. Wicklow produced a great late run to salvage promotion in a season that appeared to be slipping away from them, but Fermanagh are working really well under the Tyrone legend and they're finally getting the best out of the mercurial Seámus Quigley up front. Playing in Croke Park will mean the world to them and the smart wager here is taking Fermanagh to cover the spread, and maybe having a small nibble on them to win by 4-6 points exactly at 4/1.

Wexford play Longford in the second leg of the double header, but here the sensible option is to keep our money in our wallets - no bet advised.

If Longford beat Laois next month, and the market is giving them a great chance of doing just that, these two sides will meet again in the Leinster championship at the quarter final stage. Now that promotion has been secured for both Glen and Jason Ryan, this game is of little more than ceremonial value and neither manager will want to give up too much information to their opposite number in advance of that much more important fixture. Those who want a bet for interest would do well to move quickly and place a wager on Seán McCormack, 16/1 with Boylesports despite being named at full forward. That price won't last, so the early birds will get the valuable worms here. The betting market generally lists McCormack as an 8/1 or 10/1 chance, which is much more like fair value.

Kildare's match with Tyrone at Croke Park will perhaps be the most fascinating and enlightening of all the games taking place this weekend as neither side will want to derail the valuable momentum they have on their side. When these teams met as part of the big opening weekend to the season, Kildare were the favourites in the betting at 4/7 generally. Since then Tyrone have gone through the round robin stages without dropping a point and Mickey Harte finally looks to be putting a little faith in some of his younger players - or at least he was, before injuries to Ronan O'Neill and Kyle Coney ended the season for those two fine young prospects.

The tables have turned in the market and 4/5 is the best bet you'll get about a Tyrone win - but our instinct here is that Kildare are ready to turn the tide and re-establish their dominance. Stan James/Betpack go 11/10 about Kildare plus a point this week - that's a great bet and well worth a substantial wager.

Finally, we have the meeting of Cork and Mayo, and it may surprise many people to realise that Mayo have won seven of the last nine meetings between these two counties. Indeed had they held on for a little longer in their round robin clash at Castlebar this year, that record would read eight out of nine. Cork tend to dominate teams by dint of their sheer power and pace - but that's not easily done against Mayo, who can compete with any team for athleticism. Leading Irish firm Paddy Power go 4/7 Cork here when others bet much shorter - we suspect that Powers are on the right side, though we tipped up Mayo for the semi-final as well, only to be let down by the draw.

From a betting point of view, the best value by far is taking Mayo plus three points with William Hill. Hills are offering a handicap bet that would be more in tune with a 4/11 game, and whatever else Cork are here, they are not 4/11 shots.

Draft Review - Day 1

Big Man with Football — Fri, 27 Apr 2012 03:57:15 GMT

Several franchises took huge steps towards the start of the 2012 regular season today, while the race to get supporters excited about the new season is certainly underway in earnest. The draft is that time of year when no matter what franchise you follow, there's always some hope of success, some cause for optimism. Of course from a betting point of view, the crucial art to master is differentiating between teams who've picked a sure fire star that will enhance their ball club for the foreseeable future, and those who have picked a player that just isn't suited to making the step up to the NFL.

Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin were drafted in the first two slots, but this was hardly news to any NFL analyst, so our first discussion point is the Cleveland Browns picking up Trent Richardson at number 3. Richardson is a beast of a runner and if you wanted a tailback badly, he was definitely the man to acquire. Not since Darren McFadden in 2008 has a running back gone in the top ten picks in a draft and the lack of depth was obvious from the fact that only two other running backs went off the board today - and those were at pick 31 and 32 respectively.

On the one hand, it's disappointing that Cleveland have to go to such lengths to upgrade a position that was arguably their strongest only eighteen months ago when Peyton Hillis was at his peak. Nonetheless they needed more production here, Montario Hardesty was never going to be the answer and now they have a chance to give Colt McCoy some play action opportunities and should improve for this pick. Of course the secondary issue is whether Colt McCoy holds on to the starters jersey now that Brandon Weeden has been picked up with the 22nd overall pick. Weeden doesn't look like a superstar in the making but he has the tools to start sooner rather than later. However in a franchise looking to build for the long term - and let's be realistic, there's only so much they can achieve in 2012 in a division with the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals - this pick doesn't make quite as much sense, particularly since Weeden could easily have still been on the board by the time Cleveland pick fifth in the second round.

Jacksonville also moved up in the draft order, as they went after Justin Blackmon from Oklahoma State with the fifth overall pick, a slot that was originally scheduled to fall to the Buccaneers. After acquiring Laurent Robinson and now drafting Blackmon, they have essentially said to QB Blaine Gabbert that the time for learning is over, and now he has to start producing. Last year Gabbert was excused on the grounds of a poor receiving corps and rookie inexperience. Those two factors have been taken off the table and although this is a gamble from the Jags, they probably feel that they have a narrow window before the Colts start to improve under the guidance of Andrew Luck. They need to produce soon, because 2013 might be too late. This improves their chances in the short term and that's all the betting community will care about, but time will tell if they've done the right thing for the franchise as a whole. Right now though, they should shorten in the betting as an extra bit of production from Gabbert turns them into a very solid team.

Looking further down the draft and one of the big stories was the Patriots going against the grain and trading up to secure No. 21 in the draft. They used this slot to select Syracuse linebacker Chandler Jones. (They gave up the No. 93 pick in the draft to trade up with the Bengals.) Merely minutes later, the Pats then went from No. 31 to No. 25 to take Dont'a Hightower from Alabama.

The linebacking position at New England has been very unsettled since the days of Willie McGinest and Mike Vrabel. Bill Belichick has made a host of acquisitions in recent years, usually players with a lot of mileage on the clock, and largely they've depended on their system to secure production from mediocre players. Fans will be delighted to see them picking a few fresh apples off the tree instead of scouring the ground for ones that aren't completely rotten yet and a genuine pass rush will bring a new dimension to a Patriots defence that was very, very poor in 2013.

One of the players that they may be going after is eighth overall pick Ryan Tannehill, and of all the picks in the first round, and the top ten in particular, this one makes the least sense. Tannehill will benefit from working with offensive coordinator Mike Sherman who developed him in college, but he only had 19 starts at Texas A & M and after Miami chased both Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn, it's hard to shake the feeling that they've landed the consolation prize. After Luck and Griffin, this draft class was short on real quality at QB. Tannehill certainly didn't deserve to go this early and we'll be shocked if hemakes a positive impact this season. All the better for the Pats in the AFC East, and of course the Bills, who continue to improve defensively and who look to have added another useful weapon in Stephon Gilmore from South Carolina, with the 10th pick overall. For Miami, our feeling here at betting.com is that all they've done is taken one step closer to securing a high value pick for the 2013 draft, possibly even first choice.

Clermont vs Leinster worthy of the final

Ruck Driver — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 22:22:31 GMT

If you were looking for something negative to say about this Sunday's Heineken Cup semi-final between Leinster and Clermont Auvergne, the best you could probably come up with is that it's not the final, and that in itself is a disappointment. If we were looking forward to these two meeting to decide the winner of the tournament, it would probably be talked up as potentially one of the greatest finals in the brief history of this competition. Ironically, it would have to go some way to be one of the best semi-finals, since the meeting of Munster and Wasps in 2004 in Lansdowne Road probably still stands on its own as the high point of the Heineken Cup for most neutral supporters.

Still, with the talent on display in both these teams, who could rule out that such a game might happen again?

Actually, coming back down to earth for a moment, Saracens would probably be the first to say that for all the hype about this Clermont team and the incredibly creative players in their lineup, defensively they are a ridiculously strong unit that could not be breached for thirty points or anything close. And although Leinster had a much easier quarter final on paper, playing at home against Cardiff, their achievement in keeping the Welsh team scoreless for the 78 minutes after Leigh Halfpenny's penalty proved that they too are a difficult team to breach. Whatever else we're looking at, another 37-32 scoreline would be extraordinary.

It's no surprise that the bookmakers have made the betting for this fixture extremely even. Paddy Powers lead the market at even money each of two, while at least 50% of the firms in the market are either 9/10 each or 10/11 each on their match betting market. Frankly, while we'd love to come up with solid reasons to side with one or the other of these two teams, it can be distilled very simply - they are the two best sides in Europe at the moment, as testified by their league table, and while the game is taking place in France, the presence of roughly 15,000 Leinster supporters in Bordeaux should mitigate Clermont's "home" status in this fixture. David Skrela's absence through injury is a slight blow to the French team, but Brock James filled in for most of the game against Saracens and Les Jaunards never missed a step. These sides are evenly matched and the betting is simply correct.

The one possible exception to this perfectly even game is in the balance of Leinster's performance. At home in the Heineken Cup, they’ve wrapped up the result by halftime: after forty minutes of rugby in each game, it was 31 – 6 vs Glasgow; 24 – 6 vs Bath; 20 – 0 vs Montpellier and 27-3 vs Cardiff. Even against Bath away from home, they did their scoring in the first half to lead 18 - 13 and held their lines in the second.

It's only a slight edge, but it's enough for us for now. We'll continue to hold our antepost position on Clermont, but for this game alone, take the even money about Leinster leading at half time, to a small stake, just for interest.

Edinburgh capable of another big Heineken show

Ruck Driver — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 19:59:01 GMT

If we were to use the Rabodirect Pro12 as a formguide, it's fair to say that the betting for Saturday's Heineken Cup semi final between Ulster and Edinburgh would be very different indeed. Ulster have won the two domestic battles between the sides this season in a very comfortable fashion, scoring 80 points between the two legs and winning by over double scores on each occasion. However domestically. Edinburgh have been atrocious all season and if we were to assess the Scots based on that form, we'd have opposed them for every Heineken Cup tie and we'd have quite the hole in our bank balance for doing so.

The accepted wisdom in advance of the Aviva Stadium showdown is that the Ulstermen should prevail, but looking a little closer at the likely head to heads on the field of play, it's actually quite hard to trust them to cover a handicap betting spread that is as high as eight points in places.

Starting at the coalface, the suspension of John Afoa opens the door for Declan Fitzpatrick to make a rare start in the front row and there is no doubt but that Allan Jacobsen will be looking to take full advantage of the inexperience and naivety of his less well known counterpart. Jacobsen isn't the most powerful scrummager that Fitzpatrick will have ever met, but he is extremely clever both at using his body in the most efficient technique possible, and at managing the PR battle with the referee, something which is all the more important nowadays in the era of collapsed scrums and frustrated officials and spectators.

In the back row, Stephen Ferris has been Ulster's go-to guy this year but he might not dominate this game as much as would normally be the case since he goes head to head with David Denton, who has been a revelation in 2012. Denton is one of the few players who would relish the physical battle with a player like Ferris and he carries with him the same rampaging threat in the loose. Ferris rarely has to spend too much time worrying about the defensive side of his game - he leaves that to his opponents, and simply hits everything that moves - but this Saturday he'll have to keep one eye on the Zimbabwean-born Scottish international.

And of course we also have the battle at outhalf, where Gregg Laidlaw, an admittedly small and limited outhalf, is still by far a more consistent and dependable performer than Iain Humphreys, who has huge deficiencies in his game with regard to tackling and defensive awareness. Humphreys can be an excellent director of traffic when he sets his mind to it, but occasionally he has been known to almost play like an inside centre, disappearing from games and letting Ruan Pienaar control the pace and flow of the game from the base of the scrum.

Ultimately, Ulster are the more consistent team, they are the more balanced team, they have home country advantage and they have the edge in European experience. However Edinburgh are a rejuvenated force under Michael Bradley and they come into this game with nothing to lose and everything to gain, just as they did against Toulouse in the quarter final. Ulster's win over Munster was magnificent both for the significance of it, and the manner in which they blew Munster out of the water in surging into a 16-0 lead. However Edinburgh slayed a much fierier dragon and they have to be respected this week. Ulster may grind this one out, but eight points is a big handicap and the smart betting play could be taking the Scots to stay within a converted try of Ulster. Alternatively, those looking for a bigger price could look at the 11/2 from William Hill about Ulster winning by 1-5 points. Winning margin betting is a tough art to master but the greater volatility allows for generous returns and there is every chance that this game could turn into a tight, tactical battle with plenty of nervous mistakes on both sides.

Only one wager makes sense for El Clasico

Match of the Day — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 17:08:10 GMT

A La Liga title that once looked done and dusted is suddenly in the melting pot all over again as Barcelona and Real Madrid compete at the Nou Camp in a crucial El Clasico battle.

After eleven wins in succession, Barcelona were in wonderful form before Chelsea's miraculous victory put a stop to their gallop midweek. Real too were going well but found that Bayern Munich were able to produce a performance to upset the apple cart and leave the hopes of reaching the Champions League final in the balance. Certainly neither side could devote as much attention to this crucial fixture as they would have liked.

The money in this game is speaking loud and clear. Paddy Power are the only bookmakers still offering 4/6 about Barcelona in their match betting, while 8/13 is the general line across the rest of the firms, most of whomhave had to cut their price on the Catalans this week. Bwin and Boylesports are offering 10/3 about the draw and they will be the bookmakers of choice looking for that particular bet, while there are sprinklings of 9/2 across the betting market for those who want to bet on a win for Madrid.

Such punters will be few and far between. At this stage of the season, a draw is more than enough for Madrid and it's reasonable to assume that with their terrible record in recent derby matches - Barcelona have won seven and drawn one out of the last eight - anybody in white would be delighted with a draw tonight. Expect Mourinho to lay out his team accordingly.

The Barca boss, Pep Guardiola, has turned the pressure up on his counterpart at the Santiago Bernabeu, saying the title is Madrid's to lose rather than Barca's to win. The rivalry between Guardiola and Mourinho has often distracted from the football in games between these two clubs in recent years, with the Barcelona supporters treating Mourinho like some sort of cartoon villain after he learned his trade at the club before going on to cause plenty of furore as manager of Chelsea, Inter Milan and now their great rivals.

Psychologically however, Barcelona have all the cards here tonight. They know that they can beat Real, they know that they have the support of the Nou Camp behind them, and they know that his terrible record in El Clasico games is a stain on Mourinho's record and one that gets under his skin. Above all, Real will be playing for the final whistle from the first tip off. It's very difficult to win a game with that mindset and the smart money here is on sitting tight in the early stages, waiting for Barcelona to drift close to even money in the in play betting market, and then striking with a wager at that stage.

Galway looking good in Portlaoise

Lone Shark — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 16:34:30 GMT

At the time of writing, Galway are on the brink of a very significant victory over Dublin, one that should secure their place in the top flight of the National Hurling League for another year, while condemning the Dubs to games against Antrim and Carlow in 2013.

Even more importantly, this game looks like a coming-of-age for the Galway hurlers. They've shown great presence defensively, but crucially, they are working as a team and building their attack around Joe Canning rather than expecting the big Portumna man to do it all by himself. Of course Galway will still need Canning to produce the goods if they are to finally deliver that long sought after All Ireland title. After all very few players could have provided the kind of finish that he produced for Galway's crucial second goal, the one that set the team into real forward momentum.

Nonetheless these two games against Dublin have been hugely valuable for Anthony Cunningham and his team. While Galway remain a county prone to succumbing to hype, nonetheless the confidence that they will gain from coming through the kind of physical test that Dublin posed over the two games will be hugely valuable.

Which of course leads us to the antepost betting market. Galway currently trade at 14/1 with Paddy Powers and Ladbrokes, a price that is unlikely to last the whole way to Monday morning. Kilkenny remain far and away the market leaders and rightly so, but if Tipperary fail to find some form against Cork in Semple Stadium tomorrow, punters will start looking around and will start asking the question that if Kilkenny are to be deposed, who are the most likely team to deliver the knockout punch? Galway have had too many false dawns for us to say that the answer definitely lies West of the Shannon, but they certainly haven't done their cause any harm today. From a trading point of view, 14/1 about Galway could be worth getting into your betting portfolio sooner rather than later.

Of course the other question that needs to be asked and answered is - what of the Dubs? In the absence of Conal Keaney, the boys in blue clearly lack that magical scoring touch up front. Niall Corcoran, Joey Boland and Peter Kelly are defenders that can hold their own with the best of them, but up front they just don't have the complete package in terms of a scoring threat. Rushe has the power, Sutcliffe the pace and Ryan the accuracy, but until Dublin fond someone who can deliver all three, they could find themselves with a lot of work to do.

Certainly right now, in a market where the two sides are level in the betting, there is only one team that punters should be looking to as a home for their hard earned cash and their faith. Dublin cannot be written off, but the danger when a team puts a lot of energy and effort into reaching a certain level is that it can be hard find that motivation when hurdles start slowing momentum. Dublin could be about to find that out.

Winners and Losers in 2012 NFL Schedule

Big Man with Football — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 16:18:55 GMT

The art of reading the schedule twenty weeks before the first kick of the season is with difficulty. Teams that look weak now will improve, either through drafting, trading or good management, and other fixtures that looked tough when the schedule was drawn up can suddenly become very winnable when an injury or form crisis strikes your opponents. We've done our analysis here at betting.com and here's this column's view on the three biggest winners and losers in the dangerous game that is schedule creation.

Winner - New England Patriots

They start with three road games, but their combined opponents have the worst 2011 win loss record at 116-140 (full list here - http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/56896/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule ) and crucially, their main opponents for the No 1 ranking in the AFC all have very tough schedules. They could have a playoff place secured by the time San Francisco and Houston come to Foxboro, while their bye lands right in the middle of the season, exactly where you want it. If they beat Baltimore in September, expect the nonsense about 16-0 to gather speed very quickly.

Loser - Cincinnatti Bengals

It's all fine and dandy for Cincy up until Thanksgiving. If the Bengals aren't well on top of the AFC North by then, it could be time to say goodnight and start thinking of 2013. They finish the season with home games against Dallas and Baltimore, and road trips to San Diego, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. It's very possible that the betting will see the Bengals priced as field goal favourites against Dallas, field goal underdogs against Baltimore, and a full touchdown or more behind the other three. That's not the run in you want when trying to qualify out of arguably the toughest division in the NFL.

Winner - Buffalo Bills

Okay, they start with six road games out of nine, but if they can somehow go 4-5 or even 5-4 in that time, they have a great closing run where even now they look odds on to win at least five. They'll need to settle early, but they get the first go at Mark Sanchez, who will be looking nervously over his shoulder at Tim Tebow on the bench. Win there, beat the Chiefs at home, and suddenly things are looking great for the Bills.

Loser - New York Giants

Repeating is never easy and the Giants made a mockery of a tough schedule last season when they surged into the playoffs with a late run, but the second half of their season this year involves seven games against teams who are in the top half of the betting for the Super Bowl, as well as one road trip to Washington. The Saints will be more settled by the time they meet, the Falcons, Steelers and Packers are all in there at that time as well - this will be a huge ask for Big Blue, who have the toughest schedule of them all by the numbers.

Winner - Atlanta Falcons

They never have to go on the road two weeks in a row, they get an early shot at the Broncos when Peyton Manning will still be getting back up to the pace of NFL football and getting to know his receivers, the Saints will take a lot of time to settle due to the absence of Seán Peyton and generally things look to be falling into place for the Falcons.

Loser - Denver Broncos

The optimism around Colorado right now is palpable, but the schedule makers dampened that considerably by asking the Broncos to play seven 2011 playoff teams in their ten non-divisional games. Their first nine games of the season feature five road trips and four home ties against the Texans, Saints, Steelers and Raiders. That's one game out of nine where the 2011 AFC West champions will be sure to be favoured by more than a field goal. Even in a bad AFC West, they look like they have their work cut out to stay in contention.

Barcelona preparing for Bridge battle

Match of the Day — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 12:49:44 GMT

Contrary to expectations, the general market line of 8/11 about Barcelona for tonight's Champions League tie is holding, as the improved Chelsea form under Roberto Di Matteo's leadership gives the betting community pause for thought. Nobody would dare argue that the London club are a better team than their opponents in this fixture, but they do have a lot of factors in their favour in advance of this tie.

First of all, home advantage has been huge for Chelsea this season. They've played five games at Stamford Bridge, winning all five with sixteen goals scored and only two conceded. A very strong performance against Tottenham in the cup semi final at the weekend has given the management real options in terms of team selection, not least the question of whether or not to include Fernando Torres. On the defensive side of the ball, David Luiz will miss both legs of the tie after failing to recover from a hamstring problem, but Branislav Ivanovic's domestic suspension does not apply and so he will be free to line out if called upon.

Chelsea have also played Barcelona quite regularly in recent seasons and so will be quite familiar with what's required to counteract the Catalan side. Sometimes intimidation can be an issue when playing a team of Barcelona's stature, but the scars of 2009 are still quite fresh for a lot of these Chelsea players, when they felt that some harsh refereeing calls robbed them of a place in the Champions League final. They will believe that they can win this tie, and that confidence will be absolutely vital.

For Barcelona, the injury news is generally quite positive. Pep Guardiola will still be without talismanic attacker David Villa while Seydou Keita is also an absentee, but Ibrahim Afellay, Gerard Pique and Dani Alves have all been declared fit to start for the visitors. Barcelona are not normally a side who play conservative football, and of course the modern thinking in Champions League action is to pursue away goals rather than look for a goalless draw away from home, but still there is a suspicion that discretion may be the best part of valour here. If Barcelona can contain Chelsea in this tie, maybe nick one away goal in a 1-1 draw, they'll be in a fantastic position in advance of the second leg. Of course a win would be great but going all out to secure the win plays into the hands of the underdog, who need the cards to fall in their favour.

Those looking to bet under 2.5 goals can have odds against with several bookmaking firms, and that's the bet we'd like to keep an eye on for our in play recommendation. The positioning of Xavi and Busquets in the centre of the field will be crucial to interpreting the intentions of the visitors. Barcelona love to operate football's equivalent of a "full court press" where players push up and tackle like demons in whatever section of the field the ball happens to occupy. Tonight, they might step off and revert to a more customary half court defensive alignment, looking instead to strike on the break.

Against a strong Chelse defence, this game actually could end up disappointing a lot of people. However for the moment, our recommendation is to observe the first ten, and if the Barcelona midfield isn't trying to put in tackles on the Chelsea side of the half way line, then grab any 10/11 or 5/6 that might still be available for under 2.5 goals.

Glasgow overpriced for Cork visit

Ruck Driver — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 10:14:27 GMT

After three defeats in their last four games, two of which came at Thomond Park, this evening Munster will try to defend their fourteen match unbeaten run at Musgrave Park in Cork when they host the Glasgow Warriors. Both of these teams are right in the hunt for Rabodirect Pro 12 playoff places and now that there is no European football to worry about, domestic glory is the main aim for both sides.

Despite all this, Munster have named a greatly changed side, due mainly to the massive injury list sustained in their Heineken Cup quarter final defeat to Ulster. BJ Botha (ribs), Paul O'Connell (knee), James Coughlan (hand), Keith Earls (ankle), Ronan O'Gara (leg), Denis Hurley (leg) and Denis Wallace (knee) are all ruled out so Munster will be dependent on their second row partnership of Mick O'Driscoll and Donncha O'Callaghan to provide leadership.

The visiting Scots have injury concerns of their own with Ryan Wilson, John Barclay and Graeme Morrison all missing out, but even still Seán Lineen brings a strong team to Cork and his side look capable of competitive rugby. They've only lost one of their last fifteen starts in this competition, albeit with four draws included in that run, and the general betting line of seven or eight points is perhaps a little bit kind to a highly depleted home side.

Certainly there is every chance of a backlash from Munster here after their harrowing defeat last weekend, but the other way of looking at it is that Munster rugby is going through a lull right now and the extra point from BetVictor is enough to tip us over the edge. Take Glasgow plus nine with Chandlers.

The teams:

Munster: 15 Felix Jones, 14 Luke O'Dea, 13 Johne Murphy, 12 Lifeimi Mafi, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Ian Keatley, 9 Tomas O'Leary, 8 Peter O'Mahony, 7 Tommy O'Donnell, 6 Donnacha Ryan, 5 Mick O'Driscoll, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 Stephen Archer, 2 Mike Sherry, 1 Wian du Preez.
Replacements: 16 Damien Varley, 17 Marcus Horan, 18 Billy Holland, 19 John Ryan, 20 Paddy Butler, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Scott Deasy, 23 Ivan Dineen

Glasgow Warriors: 15 Peter Murchie, 14 Federico Aramburu, 13 Stuart Hogg, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Colin Shaw, 10 Ruaridh Jackson, 9 Chris Cusiter, 8 Johnnie Beattie, 7 Chris Fusaro, 6 Rob Harley, 5 Al Kellock (c), 4 Richie Gray, 3 Mike Cusack, 2 Pat MacArthur, 1 Jon Welsh.
Replacements: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Ryan Grant, 18 Moray Low, 19 Tom Ryder, 20 Calum Forrester, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Tommy Seymour.

Mayo capable of halting Kerry again

Lone Shark — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 18:03:44 GMT

This weekend Mayo meet Kerry in Croke Park in a repeat of last Sunday's round robin fixture between the two Western seaboard counties and the accepted wisdom coming into the fixture is that Kerry had nothing to play for last weekend, so this time around they will be much more motivated and thus should win. Certainly the bookmakers are following that line of thinking with match betting lines of 2/5 or shorter about the Kingdom. Indeed looking at Mayo's league campaign as a whole, there is plenty of validity to that approach.

However taking Mayo's league campaign as a whole is not really the right way to assess their campaign so far since it was essentially two seasons split up into one. They started well with good wins over Laois and Armagh, before hitting a terrible slump in mid-March, losing badly to both Down and Donegal. However with relegation very much a concern, they stepped up the intensity over the last three games and delivered three excellent performances, narrowly losing to Cork, drawing with Kerry and blowing Dublin out of the water.

Mayo manager James Horan has never lost sight of the fact that the championship is the be-all and end-all for his team and he's had no qualms about giving players plenty of playing time and using the league as a trial for his whole panel. He's come closer and closer to his likely championship team as the league has progressed and three creditable performances against the three big guns suggests that he's not that far off where he needs to be. The same old concerns about Aidan O'Shea in the wide open spaces of Croke Park remain, but right now the Mayo midfield and half back line, led by Donal Vaughan at 6, are in fantastic form and have to be respected.

On the other side of the coin, everything is going swimmingly well in Kerry and the Kingdom also enjoyed a decent league campaign without delving too deep into their arsenal of proven weaponry. Instead they've given some of their younger footballers a chance to shine and players like Patrick Curtin appear to have taken that chance with both hands. Last night's under-21 match against Cork suggests that Eamon Fitzmaurice had a decent crop of young footballers at his disposal so there is plenty of talent bubbling under too if Jack O'Connor feels the need to spread his net a little bit wider. Nonetheless Kerry have no bone to pick with Mayo, no agenda as they might do against Cork, Dublin or an Ulster team. They have the better footballers and Croke Park will certainly suit them but Mayo are moving well at the moment and prices like 3/1 from Boylesports look like great betting value, particularly if Kerry don't bring their A game for this fixture -which is, after all, just another league game to them.

Mayo always step things up when they play Kerry and that works for them in the league - they've got four wins and one draw in their last seven meetings - though the pressure invariably proves too much in the championship, where they've lost their last four clashes by an average margin of just over eight points.

Mayo plus three is also available at even money on the handicap market, and for those looking for a long shot bet, keep a close eye on Michael Conroy in the first goalscorer market. The Davitts man has been scoring very well this spring and has a keen eye for goal, while he will also probably benefit from Conor Mortimer and Cillian O'Connor being perceived as the main threats in the Mayo attack. Expect Conroy to prove his worth in Croke Park and if any bookmaker offers any better than Powers' current price of 11/1, it would be well worth snapping up.

Too early to cover Clermont yet

Ruck Driver — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 15:56:23 GMT

Back in November, this column had a look at the antepost betting for the Heineken Cup, and now that the 24 teams have been whittled down to a mere four, this seemed like a good time to revisit that market. Our views back then - http://www.betting.com/blogs/cominginfromtheside/archive/2011/11/11/heineken-cup-antepost-preview.aspx - were that Toulouse and Clermont Auvergne were the value bets. Toulouse may have unexpectedly bitten the dust in Edinburgh last week, but Clermont's win has salvaged matters and now the question is simple - whether to hold or trade our position on the free-spending French side.

Even at odds of 4/1 (BetVictor) and 16/1 (Sportingbet) the protagonists in the first semi final between Ulster and Edinburgh make little or no appeal. Michael Bradley may have worked miracles at Edinburgh and without doubt Ulster's win at Thomond Park has to be respected, but these sides are not in the same class as Clermont or Leinster. Ulster supporters may feel a little aggrieved by that assertion since they were very competitive in their two games against the French side, but Clermont have all but assured their place in the top 14 playoffs now so they can concentrate their efforts on their upcoming Heineken Cup battle and will probably be a stronger side for that. That's not to say that Ulster or Edinburgh can't win - there is no such thing as can't in the betting world - but that we'd need much better odds to be enticed into a covering wager.

Secondly, any side with a lot of new recruits takes time to gel and fit together. Clermont took some time at the start of the season to do that but they are now a potent force with plenty of attacking flair and if they can overcome Leinster, they are unlikely to slip up in the final and certainly will be a much better team than the side Ulster went toe to toe with in the pool stages.

So our question is a very simple matter - do we back Leinster or not?

Against Cardiff, the Dublin-based side looked imperious. Brian O'Driscoll's try in the first half was an exquisite piece of play that had most commentators salivating at the quality, but Leinster's ability to produce such magic was never in doubt. However even more impressive was the quality of their defence, restricting Cardiff to a mere three points. That will be particularly important when they play in France against Clermont's backline.

However with all that said, the odds are simply too short to justify trading out at this stage. A rampant home win over a disorganised Cardiff team is all very well but travelling to the south of France trying to pick up a win over Clermont is anything but a foregone conclusion. Confidence is possibly a little too high in the Leinster camp at the moment and with no price bigger than 6/4 available, the time to hedge will probably be at big prices in the final rather than now, at a little over evens, and with another banana skin waiting in the wings.

Arsenal set to feast on Wolves

Match of the Day — Wed, 11 Apr 2012 15:31:12 GMT

Historically, Arsenal fans used to look forward to fixtures like tonight's visit to Molineux with more than a little trepidation. Their record away from home against clubs battling to save the Premiership lives was always poor, and a little bit of that remains in evidence with bookmakers Paddy Power holding their match betting odds of 4/9 while all around them crumble.

This Arsenal team is far from the finished product and Laurent Koscielny's suspension may be a cause for slight concern, but even so the Gunners have the potential to win this fixture and to win it with plenty to spare. Let's take a look at the respective formlines for a moment. Arsenal are flying with eight wins from their last nine games, a run which has seen rise to third in the table above North London rivals Tottenham, and they can increase that gap to five points with a win tonight.

Wolves, in contrast, are really struggling to muster up any kind of run of form and the sight of Roger Johnson and Wayne Hennessey squaring off on the field of play illustrates perfectly the lack of morale or spirit in the camp. Since Terry Connor took over, they've failed to win a league game, following up the slightly promising draw with Newcastle United with six consecutive defeats. They've now conceded a ridiculous 26 goals in their last eight games and seem to be completely and utterly in disarray.

Now of course there is every possibility that they could rediscover some of the fighting spirit that got them into the Premiership in the first place and made them such a competitive force under Mick McCarthy, but it's a brave man who would go betting on such an outcome. The smart money is on the rot continuing and even allowing for Arsenal having to travel to Wolverhampton, they should be able to cover the spread on the road.

Robin Van Persie is on a slight dry spell and he'll be eager to get back on track with goals here, while the 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium earlier this season means that it's highly unlikely that Arsenal will underestimate their opponents tonight. Pre-match and in play, the smart money is on plenty of goals tonight, most of which will come for the away team. Granted the goals expectancy of 3.1 (general) is quite high, but even so, it's very hard to see Wolves holding Arsenal to a goal or less here so the upside appears to be all on the high side.

However our betting recommendation is taking Arsenal -2 on the Asian Handicap at 7/4 with Bet365. Even if they do concede a goal, which is always a possibility if the error-prone Johan Djourou comes into the lineup, the chances of them scoring three or more are very decent. Money back on a two goal win is a nice safety net to have and if the Gunners get off to a good start, trading out in play and giving yourself a nice middle is very possible.

Capitals battling by the Lee

Lone Shark — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 16:47:46 GMT

Dublin and Kerry may be the rivalry that the media love to romanticize, but battles between the capital and the "Real Capital" always feed the imagination too, and this weekend's battle in Páirc Uí Chaoimh has the making of a particularly informative clash.

Technically for Dublin, relegation is a possibility, however that would require a lot of things to happen, not least a huge swing in scoring difference. However after what happened in Castlebar, Dublin manager Pat Gilroy will be sure to be on his guard since the last thing he wants is to be playing division 2 football in 2013.

Their main aim however will be to secure a place in the top four, but the team that has been picked doesn't exactly inspire confidence. The two Brogan brothers remain absent, as does Eoghan O'Gara, who played some of his best ever football during this league campaign. The upshot of this is a very unfamiliar looking forward line, with four footballers starting who would be more traditionally associated with playing further out the field. Even Kevin McManamon is more of a runner and support player than a guy who scores three or four times a game, leaving only Diarmuid Connolly to carry the bulk of the scoring burden.

Conor Counihan on the other hand has picked a quite balanced team, though he continues to persist with the experiment of playing Aidan Walsh as a target man full forward. Cork's strength in recent years was their power running game, where big men like Pearse O'Neill, Noel O'Leary, Graham Canty and Paudie Kissane drove at the opposition defence from deep positions, drawing frees and creating overlaps. Such a ploy often leads to goalscoring chances, but the presence of a big man on the edge of the square can detract from the effectiveness of that approach.

Nonetheless corner men Colm O'Neill and Donncha O'Connor are both capable scorers with a lot to offer, while Paddy Kelly and Paul Kerrigan are both well capable of chipping in with scores from the half back line. Cork seem a lot more settled in terms of knowing what they want to do on the ball and with so many more good reasons to stay on the side of the home team, our betting recommendation this week is taking the 10/11 about Cork covering the one point handicap. That price is available from Betpack and Stan James bookmakers.

In the same fixture, Boylesports are betting 10/1 about Kevin McManamon to score the first goal, a price that clearly makes no sense. The St Judes club player was the further player forward for Dublin throughout their game against Mayo, he has a proven eye for goal, and with the exception of Connolly, he's surrounded in the forward line by players who aren't natural scorers. William Hill go 6/1 about the same selection and in this instance, they seem to be the ones on the ball here. Unless Boylesports know that this is a dummy team - and there's no reason why they would - then this 10/1 is far too high. At least those who bet on McManamon know that they will get a hard working performance and a never-say-die attitude. Sadly, Connolly backers simply can't be sure of any such thing, and after last week when he got sent off in the second half having given the referee every opportunity to do the same in the first, now is not the time to be trusting the mercurial but volatile inside man.