For the rugby purist, World Cups and Heineken Cups are all very well, but there's nothing quite like the rich diet of the Six Nations in Spring to really whet the appetite. Rivalries have formed over decades to the point that the history surrounding each individual occasion is palpable, with on the field, the battles that take place still resonate all across the globe.
The unpredictability of the competition always adds to the allure, but this year that factor is even more prominent with England undergoing massive upheaval and every country at the beginning of their four year cycle.
Logic would dictate that the final day battle between Wales and France has the look of a title decider about it, and unless either team takes a noticeable step backwards, that probably should be the case. There was little to call between these two sides at the World Cup and Wales' young side, continuing under the guidance of Warren Gatland, should be the more likely to develop, on paper at least. Their club sides haven't really made the inroads that they would like, but their wealth is spread pretty evenly, in start contrast to Ireland and Scotland, who essentially pick the bulk of their team from two sides each. There are no obvious injury concerns and as their pack continues to mature, they have the potential to deliver consistency throughout the tournament, forever the bugbear of the Welsh.
On paper, the French have done extremely well in recruiting Phillippe Saint Andre. The former international centre has a great track record in management and has made all the right noises about maximising performance in a professional manner, rather than indulging French "flair" at the expense of solid pragmatic rugby. They too have a strong team and will be happy to have three home games, with Ireland and England among the visitors to Paris. They might not beat Wales on the last day, but if they perform up to par before then, they might have the tournament wrapped up by St Patrick's day anyway.
England are third favourites but only the most passionate England supporters will contemplate spending any money on backing the champions to retain their crown. Their management team has been gutted and the interim unit are far from convincing, they've lost a string of key players and the form of their club sides in Europe is underwhelming to say the least. It's very possible that they could realise over the course of this tournament quite how important Martin Johnson's leadership actually was to their cause. With their first round tie against Scotland looking like a real banana skin, the 12/1 from BetVictor about England only winning one game looks like incredibly good value, even if it makes for gruesome contemplation for England supporters.
Scotland and Italy remain irrelevant from the point of view of winning the competition, though the Scots will of course be looking at their first round match with England as the big prize and one that they're definitely capable of winning. They probably needed a home game against Ireland or Wales to have a realistic chance of sneaking into the top half of the table, so expect them to play well but still fall short on several occasions.
The Irish need to deliver here because with an ageing team, they are running out of chances to pick up big prizes. The World Cup was a huge missed opportunity, but if Declan Kidney can even come close to harnessing the form that the provinces are showing right now, they have to be competitive. The first round match with the Welsh is crucial. 4/9 from Ladbrokes, Hills and Powers looks extremely short, but they still deserve ever so slight favouritism. They make no appeal at 5/1 or 11/2 outright though. Brian O'Driscoll, even in the Autumn of his career, remains their most incisive threat and his absence is a massive blow.
Overall, though the 12/1 about one win for England is probably the most appealing betting option in terms of pure value, ultimately our decision is to side with the French at 7/4. Under Saint Andre's guidance they can deliver a solid professional performance throughout this tournament and even if the Grand Slam might be a bridge too far, it's easy to see them travelling to Cardiff for the final weekend with four wins already secured and with scope to lose the game, possibly even by a decent amount. In that instance, hedging would almost certainly be possible and as such the best trading position seems to be siding with the favourites here.