Coming in from the Side

Much like last year, when our preview of the minor betting markets for the Heineken Cup Final was dominated by a special offer, so it is the case once again this year. Here at Betting.com we like to be neutral, but when a bookie comes up with a refund offer that significantly affects the percentages, then we have to become a little bit one sided. Powers have decreed that if Brian O'Driscoll scores at any time in the game, they will refund all tryscorer bets. O'Driscoll is best priced at 3/1 to score a try at any time (Ladbrokes) while Boylesports are betting as short as 2/1 about a try for the midfield maestro, so it's fair to say that this creates at least a 25% edge for all bets struck with the emerald-coloured Irish betting firm. Of course, now, we have to ask - which are the players most likely to cross the whitewash in a game featuring two very contrasting styles? As we discussed earlier in the week here on betting.com, Ulster will be keen to play an abrasive brand of rugby ...

Leinster's injury issues are all over the news at the moment and speculation is rife throughout the media regarding how the reigning European champions will fare, at centre in particular, on Saturday. Brian O'Driscoll is currently recovering from minor keyhole surgery on his knee, Gordon Darcy needed stitches in his head after the province's battle with Glasgow on Saturday, and Eoin O'Malley is expected to be out for six months after sustaining a cruciate ligament injury. The old pairing of O'Driscoll and Darcy will probably start, but it's far from certain that they will be at full health. However despite all this, Leinster manager Joe Schmidt is entitled to be very happy with the general health of his squad and those looking at Saturday's game from a betting point of view should be similarly satisfied that Leinster are in good shape, or as good as can be expected at this stage of a season that will have included 33 games by the time it's over. Some amount ...

The prospect of an All-Ireland Rabodirect Pro 12 final may have died last night, but the bookmaking firms and the wider betting community still expect the country to be represented in the competition decider, as Leinster are clear favourites to progress in tonight's battle with the Glasgow Warriors at the RDS. However while Leinster have been blessed with relatively good health throughout this season, the effort involved in fighting battles on two separate fronts is taking a toll and perhaps their biggest advantage coming into this fixture was their ability to rest players for the final round of the regular season against the Dragons. Playing at home will of course be welcome, but rest is a valuable asset at this time of year. The handicap betting market this week makes Leinster favourites by either twelve or thirteen points, depending on your bookmaker of choice. The one exception to this rule is Ladbrokes, who bet 10/11 each of two off an eleven point start for Glasgow - so the Magic ...

It says a lot about Munster's longstanding legacy in the Celtic League, or the Rabodirect Pro 12 as it has now become, that they remain so feared by opponents and the betting community alike. Over the course of a long season they ended the year behind the Ospreys in the league table, they are without their two main generals in the shape of Paul O'Connell and Ronan O'Gara, they have to travel to the Liberty Stadium and yet the handicap betting market is very tight, with most oddsmakers giving the Irish province less than a converted try as their head start. However if there is any opponent who won't fear Munster, it's the Ospreys. The Welsh side and Munster have been the kingpins in this competition since its inception, each having won the competition three times, each having made the play-offs since the new competition structure began and neither side ever left the top four this season for good measure. They've played each other 19 times in this competition, with ...

It's fair to say that there won't be too many rugby fans setting their alarms this Saturday morning to take in the Super XV clash between the Chiefs and the Lions in Hamilton. This is one the schedulers definitely got wrong from the point of view of giving the TV audiences an appealing fixture and the pre match handicap betting lines of seventeen, eighteen and nineteen suggest that a big win for the home side could be in the offing. If anything, the betting for this match is a little kind to the visitors. The formlines are clear enough - the Chiefs are on an eight game winning streak, while the Johannesburg-based Lions are on the back of seven defeats in a row. They now face the dreaded trip from West to East, widely acknowledged to be the harder journey to make from the point of view of adjusting, and while the Chiefs have made a lot of changes to their team, they still look to have the power to win this by a twenty-something point margin and to reward those who show faith to the ...

If you were looking for something negative to say about this Sunday's Heineken Cup semi-final between Leinster and Clermont Auvergne, the best you could probably come up with is that it's not the final, and that in itself is a disappointment. If we were looking forward to these two meeting to decide the winner of the tournament, it would probably be talked up as potentially one of the greatest finals in the brief history of this competition. Ironically, it would have to go some way to be one of the best semi-finals, since the meeting of Munster and Wasps in 2004 in Lansdowne Road probably still stands on its own as the high point of the Heineken Cup for most neutral supporters. Still, with the talent on display in both these teams, who could rule out that such a game might happen again? Actually, coming back down to earth for a moment, Saracens would probably be the first to say that for all the hype about this Clermont team and the incredibly creative players in their lineup, defensively ...

If we were to use the Rabodirect Pro12 as a formguide, it's fair to say that the betting for Saturday's Heineken Cup semi final between Ulster and Edinburgh would be very different indeed. Ulster have won the two domestic battles between the sides this season in a very comfortable fashion, scoring 80 points between the two legs and winning by over double scores on each occasion. However domestically. Edinburgh have been atrocious all season and if we were to assess the Scots based on that form, we'd have opposed them for every Heineken Cup tie and we'd have quite the hole in our bank balance for doing so. The accepted wisdom in advance of the Aviva Stadium showdown is that the Ulstermen should prevail, but looking a little closer at the likely head to heads on the field of play, it's actually quite hard to trust them to cover a handicap betting spread that is as high as eight points in places. Starting at the coalface, the suspension of John Afoa opens the door for Declan ...

After three defeats in their last four games, two of which came at Thomond Park, this evening Munster will try to defend their fourteen match unbeaten run at Musgrave Park in Cork when they host the Glasgow Warriors. Both of these teams are right in the hunt for Rabodirect Pro 12 playoff places and now that there is no European football to worry about, domestic glory is the main aim for both sides. Despite all this, Munster have named a greatly changed side, due mainly to the massive injury list sustained in their Heineken Cup quarter final defeat to Ulster. BJ Botha (ribs), Paul O'Connell (knee), James Coughlan (hand), Keith Earls (ankle), Ronan O'Gara (leg), Denis Hurley (leg) and Denis Wallace (knee) are all ruled out so Munster will be dependent on their second row partnership of Mick O'Driscoll and Donncha O'Callaghan to provide leadership. The visiting Scots have injury concerns of their own with Ryan Wilson, John Barclay and Graeme Morrison all missing out, but even ...

Back in November, this column had a look at the antepost betting for the Heineken Cup, and now that the 24 teams have been whittled down to a mere four, this seemed like a good time to revisit that market. Our views back then - http://www.betting.com/blogs/cominginfromtheside/archive/2011/11/11/heineken-cup-antepost-preview.aspx - were that Toulouse and Clermont Auvergne were the value bets. Toulouse may have unexpectedly bitten the dust in Edinburgh last week, but Clermont's win has salvaged matters and now the question is simple - whether to hold or trade our position on the free-spending French side. Even at odds of 4/1 (BetVictor) and 16/1 (Sportingbet) the protagonists in the first semi final between Ulster and Edinburgh make little or no appeal. Michael Bradley may have worked miracles at Edinburgh and without doubt Ulster's win at Thomond Park has to be respected, but these sides are not in the same class as Clermont or Leinster. Ulster supporters may feel a little aggrieved ...

Normally we'd prefer to wait until teams are named before making our predictions in the big European Rugby games, but it's notable that already, the market is starting to move towards the Ulstermen in the big Irish derby at Thomond Park, and that's despite the news that Stephen Ferris, despite being named in Brian McLaughlin's thirty four man extended squad, is unlikely to be able to feature in Saturday's clash. In fact our guess here at Betting.com is that if the market was formed from scratch this week, instead of being adjusted, then there would be no seven point handicaps on offer. This price made sense when the draw was made, at a time when Munster were after topping their group and were going well in the Rabodirect Pro12. Since then Ulster have continued to play powerful, free flowing rugby while Munster have only played in fits and starts. Indeed but for a bit of luck in Galway a little over a week ago, Ulster could be travelling to Limerick this week looking ...