Draft winners from the betting perspective

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Posted on 06 May 2011 at 18:50 PM by Big Man with Football

The dust has finally settled on the 2011 NFL draft, with all 32 franchises and their fans currently analysing their performances to assess how well fixed they are for depth in each of the key areas of their offense and defense for next season. If you look hard enough, you'll find every club pitched as either a winner or a loser in some column somewhere in the aftermath of it all, however looking strictly from a betting perspective, then it becomes a lot easier to take a definitive view in favour of a few ball clubs. 

First and foremost, the Atlanta Falcons made it very clear that they are all about winning the Super Bowl next year as they essentially traded away most of next year's draft to get Julio Jones onto their roster. With a respectable offensive line, a very solid young quarter back in Matt Ryan, two Pro Bowl targets in Roddy White and Anthony Gonzalez and a beast of a running back in Michael Turner, this has to be the best offense in the NFL now. There is no question that the Falcons have sacrificed future development in order to bring in Jones, however if you bet on the Falcons winning the big prize next year and they fall short, you don't care how they perform in 2012 - that's of no relevance whatsoever. Whether they have done the right thing for the franchise remains to be seen - whether they have increased the appeal of the 16/1 available from Victor Chandler about an Atlanta Super Bowl is not in question - they've got one step closer to the Vince Lombardi trophy, that's a certainty.

In the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts also made a very clear statement that they are going all out next year by drafting Anthony Castonzo and Benjamin Ijalana in order to give Peyton Manning more protection. There was a real case to be made for the Colts drafting a quarterback in order to begin preparing for life after Peyton, however yet again we're looking from a betting point of view, where anything after next year is irrelevant - and so the Colts did the right thing by us. They possibly could have done a little more to help out a secondary that seemed to lose a step last year, but the idea of Peyton Manning having even more time to improvise is a scary thought for any defense. 16/1 is freely available about the Colts and looks like a good option. 

Going further down the betting list, the Kansas City Chiefs are 40/1 with Stan James, Betfred and Skybet to go all the way next year and while they've been written off by a lot of pundits as one hit wonders, there is a lot of talent in that team, enough to warrant genuine consideration. Of course it doesn't hurt that they will be part of the hapless AFC west next year, where Oakland continue to be a mess and San Diego get older and more mediocre by the year. Denver could have a great linebacking group next year after drafting Von Miller, but they'll still concede a lot of four and five yard runs with that defensive line, and Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones is just the kind of backfield attack that can run all over teams like the Broncos.

Wide receiver Jon Baldwin is a little similar to Dwayne Bowe in that he will be a deep threat who can jump over cornerbacks and safeties to make the big plays, however if Todd Haley does as good a job in calming him down as he has done with Dwayne Bowe, that's a twin threat that few secondary units are capable of containing.

Finally I'll really be looking forward to seeing the Detroit Lions in 2011 and 50/1 with Betfred could yet be worth a little nibble. Nick Fairley packing down alongside Ndakamong Suh is an awesome prospect and one that will have opposing quarterbacks quivering in fear. Yes there are real weaknesses in the Lions' secondary, however it becomes a lot easier to play cornerback or safety when your defensive line is pushing the pile back and opposing quarterbacks are scrambling for their lives.

Betting on the Lions is betting on Matt Stafford's fitness to a certain degree, but with a comparitively easy schedule and a lot of good talent coming on board, they have to be respected this coming season and are well worth having on side at 50/1.

 

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