Establishing the Run

It speaks volumes about how NFL betting is treated in the UK marketplace that as massive an event as the draft has so little an impact on the antepost betting market for the Super Bowl. Teams have been won and lost in the "war rooms" that make all the critical decisions and while it's still very early to say that any particular draft choice is a sure fire winner or a bust, certainly there are some insights we can take from events of the past few days. With a view towards putting together a solid portfolio of wagers over the next few months, here are our first impressions at betting.com, ideas to keep an eye on and see if they flesh out as teams settle down. (1) The "Dream Team" just got dreamier Sadly, the bookmakers haven't forgotten quite how much talent is on the roster of the Philadelphia Eagles, even if their results last season did a great job of hiding that fact. Still, if 2011 brought them back down to earth a little bit, 2012 could be a hugely productive ...

Several franchises took huge steps towards the start of the 2012 regular season today, while the race to get supporters excited about the new season is certainly underway in earnest. The draft is that time of year when no matter what franchise you follow, there's always some hope of success, some cause for optimism. Of course from a betting point of view, the crucial art to master is differentiating between teams who've picked a sure fire star that will enhance their ball club for the foreseeable future, and those who have picked a player that just isn't suited to making the step up to the NFL. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin were drafted in the first two slots, but this was hardly news to any NFL analyst, so our first discussion point is the Cleveland Browns picking up Trent Richardson at number 3. Richardson is a beast of a runner and if you wanted a tailback badly, he was definitely the man to acquire. Not since Darren McFadden in 2008 has a running back gone in the top ten ...

The art of reading the schedule twenty weeks before the first kick of the season is with difficulty. Teams that look weak now will improve, either through drafting, trading or good management, and other fixtures that looked tough when the schedule was drawn up can suddenly become very winnable when an injury or form crisis strikes your opponents. We've done our analysis here at betting.com and here's this column's view on the three biggest winners and losers in the dangerous game that is schedule creation. Winner - New England Patriots They start with three road games, but their combined opponents have the worst 2011 win loss record at 116-140 (full list here - http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/56896/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule ) and crucially, their main opponents for the No 1 ranking in the AFC all have very tough schedules. They could have a playoff place secured by the time San Francisco and Houston come to Foxboro, while their bye lands right in the middle of ...

Any big trade in the NFL is likely to have knock on effects, but it's a gifted soothsayer who would have expected Tim Tebow to land in New York for the 2012 season. When a butterfly flaps it's wings.... Now that the polarising University of Florida graduate has landed in NYC, pundits are trying to make sense of the whole thing and figure out how exactly the Jets plan to use Tebow in their offense, which recently committed to Mark Sanchez for the long term. This has caused a few brows to furrow, to the point that suggestions of Tebow as a full back or a tight end have even been mooted. There just is no obvious answer, which leads to some pretty outrageous conclusions. The easy answer is that Rex Ryan plans to use the wildcat formation even more extensively, but with Joe McKnight and Jeremy Kerley on the roster, it's doubtful that Tebow is even the best man for that role. Some wags have suggested that Kerley is a better passer of the football than Tebow anyway, though this is ...

Rarely can the destination of one player have generated such excitement among Gridiron supporters. Nobody would argue for a minute that the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback is guaranteed to get back to his best when he returns to action next season and the news that he has yet to throw a ball in any of these locations is a little worrying, but as risky plays go, the upside to taking on the new free agent is huge. For a variety of reasons, Manning has decided to move on from Indianapolis. He gave the Colts some incredible memories but they have a lot of rebuilding to do right now and presumably will start next season with Andrew Luck under centre. They can certainly ill afford to be laying out so much money to bring in Manning on a new contract. With so many different franchises having problems at QB, it's understandable that there are plenty of possible destinations, but there are four which seem to be out in front of the rest and certainly whichever of the four captures Manning's ...

Following on from our preview of the NFC for 2012, now it's time to have a look at the various AFC franchises and how they stand right now, with the new season still six months away. It's been a lean time for the American Conference with four of the last five Vince Lombardi winners coming from the NFC, though the early betting market for next year suggests that once again, it could be hard to call which side the winner will come from. Here's our rundown on how the various franchises are set for 2012/13. AFC East NEW England Patriots It's easy to pick holes in their defense, but the simple fact of the matter is that they got to the Super Bowl with their defense playing poorly because their offense is just that good. Presuming that Wes Welker signs a new deal, there is no reason why they can't be that good again. The concern will be whether their place in the Super Bowl was more down to offensive brilliance, or a soft schedule and some big missed plays by the Ravens in ...

And so, like a well fed badger retiring to his set, "Big Man with Football" prepares to go into hibernation. It's been a moderately successful year of gridiron betting here on Betting.com, even if we did arrive a little late to the Big Blue Party! The 2011/2012 season will be remembered as the year of some crazy passing numbers, the year the Giants came from nowhere to salvage one of the most unlikely Super Bowl wins of all time, the year that the 49ers edged out the Saints in one of the great playoff battles of all time, and the year that the 31st and 32nd ranked defenses in the league were considered the two most likely Super Bowl winners in the run up to the divisional round of the playoffs. It's too early to think about betting for next year, but if we were to look at the long term prognosis of all the teams, here's a quick word on each of the NFC sides, with the AFC rundown to follow next week. NFC East - Giants The Giants are actually quite well poised right ...

And so to the big issue surrounding tomorrow night's battle in the Lucas Oil Stadium - who will win? It might seem like a trite and simple question when we've already gone into such detail regarding key issues surrounding the game, however it remains the most crucial of questions - will the it be the Patriots or the Giants who secure their fourth Super Bowl title? The Patriots remain the favourites to take the title by a very narrow margin as the betting for the game sees most bookmakers offering a three point spread, with the Giants a touch of odds on at that price. However the closer we get to kick off, the more it looks like Big Blue for the win, at least in the eyes of this column. We've already discussed the passing game - where Eli Manning, on this season's form, is entitled to consider himself at least the equal of Tom Brady. Brady has seen and done it all in professional football and his numbers for this season are fantastic, but even he would acknowledge that the ...

It shows quite how far the New York Giants have come this season that the debate about which quarterback is the most likely MVP candidate is even taking place this week. When fantasy football drafts were taking place at the start of the year, Tom Brady was a first or second round pick in almost every league. Eli? Eighth or ninth round at best, and that's assuming he was drafted at all. After all, who would have picked him over Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Roethlisberger or Vick? And that's before allowing for the other second tier passers like Schaub, Ryan, Romo, Cutler or Fitzpatrick, or big brother Peyton, who only went undrafted due to injury concerns. However after this year, second tier is not an accusation that we'll ever hear about Eli again. Whether or not he picks up his second Super Bowl ring, his achievement in guiding this Giants offense into the biggest annual occasion in world sport is a genuinely impressive one. The bookies are expecting a quite even battle ...

After all the discussion about offense and defense, it turned out to be the special teams players that made the difference last Sunday. The 2012 Conference Finals won't be remembered fondly by either Kyle Williams or Billy Cundiff, as they will forever have to live with the disappointment of making crucial plays that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons. But what else did we learn? Here are five key facts that will need to be borne in mind in advance of the Super Bowl, both in terms of analysing the game, and of course putting our betting strategy together in advance of the big occasion (1) The Giants pass rush will test New England immensely Now that they're all healthy and working together, the New York Giants are an utterly devastating force when it comes to rushing the passer. Jason Pierre Paul, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck have all put up great numbers this year and while the New England offensive line has been one of the best in the league this year, doing a wonderful ...