Posted on 25 Jan 2012 at 16:07 PM by
Match of the Day
No doubt some of our more eagle-eyed readers have noticed the focus for today's piece - the anomaly that when a football game is deemed to be an even match between the two sides, the odds are usually along the lines of 8/5 each team and 23/10 the draw, or something like that depending on the amount of margin written in by the bookmakers offering the betting.
However in a game where one team is deemed to be exactly one goal better, usually offered at around 1/2 on the match betting market, the one goal handicap odds will normally be along the lines of 7/5 each team and 11/4 the handicap draw. In both cases, the draw/handicap draw is by far the most likely single discrete outcome in terms of margin, and yet even if the total goals expectancy is similar, the odds are very different.
To those who look at the distribution as a perfect poisson curve (don't fret non-stats people, normal service will resume very soon!) this is of course mathematically anomalous. However the explanation is simple. When a game is level, both sides have something to lose and so both will play normal football until the final whistle. However if one team is leading and thus one team is losing, the parameters change. If the home side is in front, the away team has nothing to lose, so they tend to be a touch more adventurous in trying to look for a goal, making goals and thus a move along the margin axis more likely.
Simply put, a draw game is worth something and teams will defend to hold it, a one goal deficit is usually of no value whatsoever. However that rule goes out the window for a game like tonight's Carling Cup second leg fixture, where a draw is useless to Manchester City and a one goal deficit is worth something to Liverpool.
Of course we could factor in things like team news, such as the Toures playing in Africa and the suspensions to Mario Ballotelli and Vincent Kompany, however all of those elements have been factored into the match price and irrelevant to this discussion. However all the subsidiary markets are priced as if it is a regular league game, when quite the opposite is the case - the "draw" result here is Manchester City to win by a goal.
On the winning margin market, Manchester city to win by a goal is 10/3, which is a touch bigger than what should be the case for this outcome. Yet as the game proceeds, if the match either stays level or Man City take the lead, this event will shorten in price much faster than should be the case, as the in-play betting market will be much more responsive to the circumstances of the game as they unfold. Take the 10/3 about City winning by a one goal margin, prices as such by BetVictor, Bet365 and Ladbrokes, and be ready to trade it away for a profit with seventy odd minutes gone in the game.