In play betting - make it pay

It may not be the final that everyone expected, but the meeting of Chelsea and Bayern Munich next Saturday is no less intriguing for that, particularly since it will mark the first time since 1984 that a club will play the Champions League/European Cup final in their home ground - and as Dundee United fans will tell you, if there was any justice, AS Roma would have had no place in that final against Liverpool either. The pre match betting lines make Bayern rough 0.6 goal favourites. A handful of bookmakers bet 5/6 Bayern to win the match inside 90 minutes, while Bwin's odds of 5/11 are the best available for those looking for a wager on Bayern to win the trophy, whether that be in normal time, extra time or by way of the dreaded penalty shootout. In order to ascertain if this betting is correct, the first thing is to discern whether or not this is truly a home game for Bayern, and from what does home advantage originate? In practical terms, the absence of any travelling requirement ...

When discussing betting in play strategy on these pages previously, we've stressed frequently the importance of knowing the aims of the teams on the field. Some of our biggest successes here on this particular section of betting.com have come from breaking down the second legs of matches and assessing the disconnect between the match prices and what constitutes a meaningful result on the field of play. In those instances, when formulating our betting strategy, at least the factors were in play in advance of the match. This Sunday afternoon however, there is the possibility that the dynamics of one game will change due to scores in another - which is a completely different situation. On those grounds, the key element to any betting strategy will be to look at the different potential situations in advance, and take a clinical view of how these would cause the in-play betting market to react. Let's look at the initial match prices and spreads, available from all the leading betting ...

As we've discussed on these pages previously, the central tenet to in-play betting is always the same - forget what the odds were at the start of the event, take in the early stages of the occasion and then after a set period of time, step back and see if what's unfolding tallies with the previously held view that caused the bookies to set their markets up as they did, however that may have been. Sometimes there will be scoring events, like goals, tries, birdies, touchdowns or whatever, and these will distort matters, but even so the biggest advantage the punter has over the firm laying the bets is the ability to set aside what was initially seen as the "accepted wisdom" and to treat the event on it's merits. This is especially true in fixtures where it's difficult to predict what approach will be brought to the event - as is very much the case in tonight's Scottish Premier League tie between Celtic and St Johnstone. As a relatively new enterprise, rest assured ...

A La Liga title that once looked done and dusted is suddenly in the melting pot all over again as Barcelona and Real Madrid compete at the Nou Camp in a crucial El Clasico battle. After eleven wins in succession, Barcelona were in wonderful form before Chelsea's miraculous victory put a stop to their gallop midweek. Real too were going well but found that Bayern Munich were able to produce a performance to upset the apple cart and leave the hopes of reaching the Champions League final in the balance. Certainly neither side could devote as much attention to this crucial fixture as they would have liked. The money in this game is speaking loud and clear. Paddy Power are the only bookmakers still offering 4/6 about Barcelona in their match betting, while 8/13 is the general line across the rest of the firms, most of whomhave had to cut their price on the Catalans this week. Bwin and Boylesports are offering 10/3 about the draw and they will be the bookmakers of choice looking for that ...

Contrary to expectations, the general market line of 8/11 about Barcelona for tonight's Champions League tie is holding, as the improved Chelsea form under Roberto Di Matteo's leadership gives the betting community pause for thought. Nobody would dare argue that the London club are a better team than their opponents in this fixture, but they do have a lot of factors in their favour in advance of this tie. First of all, home advantage has been huge for Chelsea this season. They've played five games at Stamford Bridge, winning all five with sixteen goals scored and only two conceded. A very strong performance against Tottenham in the cup semi final at the weekend has given the management real options in terms of team selection, not least the question of whether or not to include Fernando Torres. On the defensive side of the ball, David Luiz will miss both legs of the tie after failing to recover from a hamstring problem, but Branislav Ivanovic's domestic suspension does not ...

Historically, Arsenal fans used to look forward to fixtures like tonight's visit to Molineux with more than a little trepidation. Their record away from home against clubs battling to save the Premiership lives was always poor, and a little bit of that remains in evidence with bookmakers Paddy Power holding their match betting odds of 4/9 while all around them crumble. This Arsenal team is far from the finished product and Laurent Koscielny's suspension may be a cause for slight concern, but even so the Gunners have the potential to win this fixture and to win it with plenty to spare. Let's take a look at the respective formlines for a moment. Arsenal are flying with eight wins from their last nine games, a run which has seen rise to third in the table above North London rivals Tottenham, and they can increase that gap to five points with a win tonight. Wolves, in contrast, are really struggling to muster up any kind of run of form and the sight of Roger Johnson and Wayne Hennessey ...

It might not be in play betting just yet, but the US Masters is tantalizingly close to getting underway at Augusta and it's reasonable to state that there hasn't been a more eagerly awaited golf tournament in many years. Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy, Hunter Mahan and Tiger Woods, will all tee off on Thursday on the back of a win in their most recent outing, while most of the leading contenders are in very good form. Not unlike the Grand National, the US Masters is a unique event on the PGA Tour in that it's always played at the one venue, and the same characteristics are integral to picking a winner year in and year out. Any golfer who scores high on these criteria is worth keeping on side. (1) Course form. First timers at Augusta rarely fare well as it takes time to get to know the course, and to get used to the pomp and ceremony that comes hand-in-hand with this event. (2) Putting. You simply cannot win the Masters on these incredibly fast greens if you don't putt with confidence ...

As someone who grew up during the late 1980's and early 1990's, a time when English football was still struggling to get to grips with huge issues off the field of play, the weekly highlights package from Italy was a glimpse into an incredibly glamorous world, a game that seemed to bear no relation to kind of fare served up by the "Crazy Gang" of Wimbledon, or the odd spectacle of Luton Town playing on their artificial pitch. Remember these weren't relegation candidates back then, they were teams that regularly finished in the top half of the table. Meanwhile, in Italy, AC Milan, backboned by the Dutch trio of Frank Rijkaard, Ruud Gullit and Marco Van Basten, were at their peak and enthralling the world in the process. Inter were also a force to be reckoned with, though they instead depended on the Teutonic influence of Andy Brehme, Jurgen Klinsmann and Lothar Matthaus. The fact that Ian Rush failed to make it at Juventus alongside the mercurial Michael Laudrup only ...

In an odd way, tonight's FA Cup tie at the Stadium of Light is very much an occasion for the purists. While Everton and Sunderland have each played some decent football in the Premiership this season, the FA Cup remains by far their best chance of real meaningful success and both managers will feel that their players have earned a shot at getting to Wembley after some good football over the past few months. David Moyes continues to perform miracles with a very small budget while Martin O'Neill has completely turned things around in Sunderland to the point that a top ten finish is now an odds on betting chance, something that looked way out of reach when he took over. Sunderland used a lot of luck getting this tie back to their home venue as Everton had a string of chances for winners in the drawn game at Goodison Park, only to be denied on several occasions. Nikica Jelavic was a constant threat up front both on the ground and in the air, while Royston Drenthe also looked very sharp ...

"The Lady doth protest too much, methinks" – William Shakespeare (Hamlet). It always seem classy to start a piece with a reference to the Bard, and certainly when we're looking at a Coppa Italia semi final between AC Milan and Juventus, the famed Old Lady of Turin, it seemed particularly apropos - even for a betting column. Certainly protestations have caught our eye in the run up to this tie, though they don't come form the Old Lady but from the Rossanieri. "The Coppa Italia is a target for us,'' said AC Milan coach Massimiliano Allegri . "It will be an intense game because both teams will want to progress." Now accusing managers of saying nothing of substance is hardly earth shattering stuff, but there is something mildly disconcerting about managers going out of their way to point out that they will actually be trying to win a football game. One is tempted to wonder what would be the point of showing up otherwise? Yet in the same breath ...