In play betting - make it pay

On a separate issue to the match betting, as was discussed in a previous post, the issue of total goals betting is also worth a brief examination. International soccer normally has a lower scoring rate, particularly when the teams are evenly matched. However so far this tournament, the average has worked out at nearly 2.6 goals per game, which should in theory see those punters who like to bet on "over" maintain more of a profit. However in terms of discrete outcomes, over 2.5 has won on ten occasions, while under 2.5 has been the outcome on twelve games - this has come about a result of three games where there were five goals, combined with the absence of a 0-0 draw so far. So the question betting enthusiasts must ask is whether or not this has come about as a result of some wider trend, whether some other factor is in play at this event, or whether this is just an anomaly. The fact that the goals are evenly spread across all groups and participants points in the direction of ...

Much of the build up to tonight's Euro 2012 quarter final meeting between Germany and Greece has centered on the uneasy political relationship between the two nations, while ignoring the fascinating on-field clash that is set to take place. From a purely tactical point of view it's an intriguing battle, not to mention a challenging betting event. The betting market has sent out some very clear signals - not unlike how the financial markets regarding the two countries in recent years. Even at very short prices, Germany are as popular as Bundesbank Treasury Bills, now trading at a best price of 1/3, while Greece are as unwanted as a newly minted drachma, even at odds of as big as 11/1 in places. For Greece, it's all about plan A - park the bus in front of goal, and hope that they manage to steal a break, or else simply hang in there and get through on penalties. Indeed the Germans are expecting just this, as evidenced by their pre-match comments. "It will be a tight affair ...

Tonight's Euro 2012 semi-final is a truly fascinating encounter from the point of view of those who like to study the technical side of the game of football, and to examine two sides that will play the closest thing to test cricket that will ever take place in Donetsk. It might not take five days, but the drama will be similarly slow to unfold. These may be neighbouring countries, with a longstanding history and rivalry, but there is little or no risk of Paulo Bento or Vicente Del Bosque sending their teams onto the field with a table-thumping, rousing pre-match rant ringing in their ears. This will be all about the application of sporting science, two teams carefully feeling each other out and looking to slowly create chances and strike when the opportunity arises. All of this, of course, is not much use to those of you looking to isolate a betting opportunity - so lets go back to square one to see if we can do just that. The match betting sees Spain installed as favourites at a touch ...

In one sense, Germany are ideally set up for tonight's Euro 2012 semi-final meeting with Italy in Warsaw. They come into the game on the back of four good wins in a row. They even had the luxury of resting three players for their meeting with Greece, while the rest of the team have had two days extra rest than their Italian counterparts. For good measure, Italy were forced to play an extra half hour in Sunday's quarter final against England, meaning that Germany should have a considerable advantage in freshness - a point that's always well worth noting for in play betting, particularly in the latter stages of the game. Perhaps the only negative aspect from Germany's point of view is that their opponents, Italy, have always had the Indian sign over Die Mannschaft in tournament finals with a record of four draws and three wins in seven games. Indeed Germany haven't beaten Italy in any fixture since their 2-0 win in Zurich back in June 1995, seventeen years ago. The bookmakers ...

After the glitz and glamour of the European Championships, it's back to some very humdrum football action for the next few weeks, until the big European leagues get back into action. In the meantime, some of Europe's summer leagues are underway and tonight there will be a full round of games in Ireland, which we thought we'd look at for the purposes of isolating some betting value. League leaders Sligo Rovers are understandably a very short price, generally wagered at 1/4 to beat Bray Wanderers and they will be included in a lot of different accumulator bets since Bray are simply not in good form, particularly defensively. The Wicklow club have conceded three goals in four of their last five games and they now have the worst defensive record in the league. Sligo Rovers owe their position at the top of the table to their excellent defensive record and while they will be tested by the free scoring Bray attack, they should be capable of getting on the scoresheet on a few occasions ...

Stepping away from the routine of trying to identify profitable betting opportunities in the short term, now seemed like as good a time as any to speculate on the future of the Scottish Premier League without a club called Rangers, and how that new scenario might unfold for the clubs and supporters of the game north of the border. In an era when football is being taken away from the fans, what has happened over the last few weeks has been nothing short of remarkable. In an environment where it is perceived as impossible to be neutral, fans of smaller clubs have always perceived a bias towards the SPL. In turn, smaller SPL clubs have always perceived a bias towards the Old Firm and within the Old Firm, Celtic supporters have always perceived a bias towards Rangers. At the risk of being seen to come down on one side or another - and rest assured that here at Betting.com, we've no interest in getting involved in that aspect of the discussion - but the actions of those in power have certainly ...

Last year the Scottish Open moved from Loch Lomond to Castle Stuart for financial reasons and despite the seemingly wise move to switch the event to a links course and thus appeal to golfers looking for a preparatory event in advance of the Open Championship, the weather was far from kind and the event had to be shortened to 54 holes. This week there has been plenty of rain in the Inverness area but the course is expected to hold up, or at least to allow the entire field to get through 72 holes of play. However from a betting point of view, the crucial outcome of the soft weather is that the scoring is likely to be quite low, with the course playing relatively short and the greens offering plenty of receptive surface. That of course suits some golfers and won't suit others, while it also diminishes the degree to which links specialists will be advantaged. Of course it would be foolish to look at this event from a betting point of view without at least tipping the cap to a few links ...

The explosion in the popularity of in play betting has taken the betting world by storm, with several firms now openly admitting that it's by far their biggest growth area and an aspect of the industry that is driving increased turnover. While pre-match trading continues to be the bread and butter for many firms, in-play is a great source of new business and also very useful in terms of making a site feel vibrant and current. However more than a few people have wondered about how these firms are able to offer so many games in play, particularly in leagues where it simply wouldn't be viable to dedicate a full time compiler to that league. The answer is through companies like BetRadar and Running Ball, who offer an immediate stream of data from games all across the globe, which can then be input into models created by the betting firms, and thus prices can be output. Scouts attend games for these companies and put in every little detail into PDAs about where the ball is on the field ...

As you read this post here on Betting.com, chances are the Open championship will be underway and the betting in play on the event will already be moving furiously. In order to take advantage of any opportunities for betting profit that might arise this week, it's worth bearing in mind three things that are our main keys to successfully betting this week's event. (1) Top class golfers tend to win at Lytham The English links course is one of the most well known circuits on the Open championship rotation and more often than not, it throws up quality winners who are on top of their game. The last two winners here were David Duval and Tom Lehman; they mightn't be feared names now, but they were ranked in the top two or three in the world when the won here, while the other winners were Seve Ballesteros (twice), Gary Player, Bob Charles, Peter Thomson, Bobby Locke, Tony Jacklin and Bobby Jones. With all due respect to the golfers I'm about to name, there aren't any names like ...

We've discussed previously here on Betting.com how the dynamics of betting on football matches changes entirely when you talk about second legs of matches where one side holds a multiple goal lead at the start of the match. The best way to test this is of course to apply a rule and to bet accordingly, which is exactly what we're going to do for this week's Champions League and Europa League second leg matches. The theory behind our principle is simple. The final winning margin in football matches should be normally distributed, with a mean based on the expected supremacy and a standard deviation based on the total goals expectancy. This is standard betting logic. However the odds that are on offer from most firms do not bear this out. The reason final margin of victory is not normally distributed is because certain results are worth chasing, and so the dynamic alters over the course of a game, depending on the current score. In most matches, played in league format, a draw is ...