Posted on 16 Jan 2012 at 21:27 PM by
iancatley
Only two Tests have been played in Dubai. Not much form to make England vs Pakistan a betting proposition. Betting outright, the draw is clear favourite but draws are few and far between in Test matches these days.
On form England should win, Pakistan is still in turmoil and disgrace after recent events. The selection of an extra spinner is not going to make much difference on this surface. England should stick with the formula, which has served them very well, i.e. huge, tall fast bowlers with a penchant for sticking it up the early order with a new ball. When wasn’t that a successful tactic; the Pakistan front five will have to be good to cope even on this pitch. However England still can instigate a mid-order crisis with Pietersen always seemingly able to throw away a good start in a moment of rashness. So even in a three-horse race no bet seems sound advice. Keep the outright betting for the later Tests once we have seen the shape of this Pakistan side, which has little form against quality opposition.
Instead look at 1st innings run-scorers for the value. There are some clues in the very brief ground history. In the first Test match here, Pakistan and South Africa scored 1,299 for the loss of just 25 wickets that is an average of 52 runs per wicket. In fact almost all the runs were scored at the top of the order, there were four separate centurions and nobody lower than No 5 made more than 12; patience like a top batsman was required. The pitch will be slow, even if it takes a bit of turn later in the game and the expectation is that anyone who gets their head down can make a hatful. England has some real cameo specialists but currently have the two top concentrators in the game. Trott showed that he might run into form with a decent second innings effort in the last warm up game and he is the only one that can outstay Alastair Cook and give us a run for our money. As I write between them Cook and Trott make-up 40% of the book, a combined 6/4 to be leading scorer. You’d be pushed to name one to deny them. Right now Cook is the real deal. He has the capability to grind it out and occupy, he is not without shots but is clearly in that zone to which few can aspire and at around 4/1 looks the bet for this game.